Electric and thermal cars, parity in 2030

17 million BEVs will be sold worldwide in 2024, or 1 in 5 cars, which means a market share of around 20%. Growing by more than 3 million units and a 3% share by 2023, electrics will end the year with a 21% increase in global registrations according to the International Energy Agency (Iea), which reported these and other forecasts in its Global EV Outlook 2024 report. The locomotive of deliveries will always be China, with a 45% market share of full electrics. Europe and the United States will follow, with shares of 25% and 11% respectively. At this rate, all cars sold worldwide from 2035 onwards will be electric. Meanwhile, 1 in 3 cars in China and 1 in 5 in Europe and the US will be battery-powered as early as 2030.

This is certainly due to environmental policies, such as a stop to petrol and diesel in the Old Continent from the middle of the next decade, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, China's five-year plan and India's Production Linked Incentive. But also the green strategies of manufacturers and technological developments, which are gradually lowering battery prices.

In this regard, the gradual decline in battery costs and other items should lead to the long-awaited price parity between electric and combustion cars in 2030. Forecasts say that cheaper chemistries, such as lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), will be used more and more, while the recycling industry prepares for the volumes to be met from 2030 onwards. Meanwhile, the second-hand market will also grow, further increasing the accessibility of zero-emission EVs. Turning to recharging, the Agency indicates that in 2023 the number of recharging stations increased by 40 per cent compared to 2022, but will need to increase sixfold by 2035.