Electric cars: 90,000 by the end of the year with incentives, but not enough for EU target

Electric car registrations in Italy are progressing much faster than in the past: they are almost 29 per cent higher than in the first seven months of 2024, with a market share of 5.2 per cent. However, European targets remain far off, not to say unattainable. Starting with the target of 4.3 million cars in circulation by 2030 indicated in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (Pniec) updated in 2024. This is what emerges from data compiled by Antonio Sileo, director of the Sustainable Mobility research programme at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Feem).

"Even if the number of registrations were to exceed 90,000 this year, which is not a foregone conclusion even with the arrival of the new incentives announced by the Minister for the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, by the end of 2025 there will be less than 370,000 electric cars with Italian number plates," Sileo calculates.

"The impact of the new incentives, against an allocation of 597 million euro, is estimated at 39,000 vehicles, not only cars therefore, which should be purchased by June 2026, but for the now close Pniec target 390,000 would not be enough. In the coming years the number of electric cars, even in Italy without incentives, will grow significantly, but it is pointless to expect miracles. Precisely for this reason it is to be expected that the discussion on EU regulations for car manufacturers, which will come to a head in the coming months, will be characterised by greater realism,' Sileo comments.

The difficulties of our country, which is second only to Germany in terms of car fleets and cars sold, are analysed in the report What Hinders Electric Vehicle Diffusion? Insights from a Neural Network Approach in which Feem researchers, using a new approach based on neural networks, not only identify the main obstacles to the diffusion of electric vehicles, but also point to the usefulness of integrated approaches that go beyond incentive policies alone, and confirm the too-rapid momentum required by the objectives set by the European Union.