Utility bills, electricity and gas price rises on the way: what will happen to households and businesses

In recent weeks we have been witnessing a rise in energy prices with some analysts estimating, in particular, a rise in gas prices from the beginning of 2025 with the bar that could reach over EUR 50 per megawatt hour, also as a result of the tensions that continue to affect particularly hot fronts such as those in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East. But what will be the consequences for households and businesses (on 27 December 2024 Arera announced that in the first quarter of 2025 the bill for the vulnerable typical customer, served in greater protection, will increase by 18.2%, ndr). The possible implications of these increases were highlighted, in the video interview released to the website of Il Sole 24 Ore, by Massimo Ricci, director of Arera's Energy Division (the Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment)

"Let's start from a necessary premise that helps to understand why the price of gas in Italy is connected to geopolitical tension," Ricci emphasises. "In recent years, the development of the marketing of natural gas through LNG (liquefied natural gas), i.e. transport by ship, has in some way linked the various markets to the various world markets. So, for some years now, the price that is formed in European markets is then very close to that which is formed in Italy and follows quite closely the prices that are also formed in very distant countries, such as China and the countries of the East'.

Ricci explains 'that there are these geopolitical movements or perhaps even cyclical or seasonal variations in consumption in the various countries, downstream of which can create particularly tense market conditions, and that is what has happened in recent months. Now, fortunately, in recent days that trend seems to have stopped somewhat, but conditions are always difficult to predict. Right now,' Ricci further clarifies, 'we are more around 45-46 euro per megawatt hour. The 50 euro per MWh threshold would therefore seem to have not yet been reached, especially in the prices expected for the first few months of next year. However, the price levels are certainly worrying and, therefore, should be kept under control, also in order to evaluate possible emergency interventions should they reach very high values, like the historical ones".

The director of Arera's Energy Division also points out 'that Italy sees electricity prices very closely linked to gas prices. As we know, much of the electricity, despite the progressive development of renewables, is still produced through natural gas and, therefore, the price of the latter directly influences that of electricity. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention to the price of natural gas and, also for this reason, it is crucial to continue to push on the development of renewables, but also of all the infrastructure, starting with grids and storage that are needed to integrate renewables into the energy system because this, on the one hand, guarantees greater independence from other countries and, on the other, ensures that prices are very low, at least during the times when renewables produce a lot of energy.

Ricci also points out that, when there is more energy from renewable sources than is needed, 'in those hours, prices also go to zero, so energy in those hours is free'. For the director of Arera's Energy Division, it is therefore necessary, on the one hand, to pay continuous attention to prices in order to evaluate possible measures, and on the other, to continue to invest by continuing the trend that has started in recent years are 'being careful to make efficient investments so as to make our electricity system independent from that of natural gas and to progressively electrify the part of consumption that can be electrified, thus saving natural gas'.