Eli Lilly beats expectations in Q1 and raises 2026 estimates

Central for the group remains the competitive battle with Denmark's Novo Nordisk, in a GLP-1 agonist market that analysts estimate could exceed $150 billion over the next decade. While Lilly expects double-digit growth, Novo has signalled possible pressure on revenues and prices, not least because of the entry of generic versions of Ozempic and Wegovy in some markets such as India and Canada.

Both groups are also facing a more stringent regulatory environment in the US, with agreements aimed at reducing prices in exchange for expanding government health coverage, a factor that could affect margins in the medium term but at the same time broaden the pool of patients treated.

Competition is rapidly shifting from weekly injections to oral formulations, which are seen as a potential factor for market expansion. Here, Novo benefits from a competitive advantage linked to its familiarity with the active ingredient semaglutide, while Lilly is focusing on a completely new molecule and a broader pipeline.

Among the most promising candidates is retatrutide, an experimental drug that in trials has shown superior results in terms of weight loss compared to currently available therapies, reinforcing the group's ambitions for the next generation of treatments.

In addition to developing a pipeline of new drugs in its own laboratories, Lilly is pursuing an external growth strategy and accelerating the strengthening of its pipeline through M& A transactions: in recent months it has announced billion-dollar acquisitions, including those of Centessa Pharmaceuticals and Kelonia Therapeutics, as well as Ajax Therapeutics. The strategy, according to analysts, aims to reinvest the flows generated by the obesity business to support long-term growth and consolidate competitive positioning.