Emilia-Romagna: manufacturing (29 per cent) above the Italian average
Italia’s most industrialised region is not immune to the economic slowdown. In Emilia-Romagna, manufacturing is a competitive advantage, accounting for 29 per cent of value added – a full nine percentage points above the national average and ahead of Veneto and Marche. Yet regional GDP is expected to grow by just 1 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. This is the paradox that emerges from the EY-Parthenon analysis presented in recent days in Reggio Emilia. And the conclusion regarding the Emilia-Romagna region is as follows: a production sector capable of innovating and selling abroad, but exposed to high energy costs and the weakness of its main export markets. Mechanical engineering, electronics, food and transport equipment drive supply chains that generated 84 billion in exports last year, accounting for around 42 per cent of the region’s GDP. EY’s figures show that machinery alone accounts for 27 per cent of foreign sales, compared with 15 per cent for Italia as a whole; followed by transport (15 per cent) and food (14 per cent). Yet the very strength of its exports is also a point of vulnerability: 54 per cent are destined for the European Union, compared with the national average of 51 per cent. German demand is crucial. Following a 2.5 per cent contraction in 2024, regional exports rose by just 1.3 per cent in 2025, compared with a 3.3 per cent increase for Italia as a whole. The food sector underpinned the recovery with a contribution of 0.9 percentage points.
The regional picture is, moreover, rather uneven. Over the four-year period 2019–2023, Modena saw its real value added rise by 12 per cent, with industry accounting for 5.2 percentage points of that growth; Parma recorded an increase of 8.3 per cent. Bologna, Modena, Reggio Emilia and Parma together account for 67 per cent of the region’s GDP. At the other end of the scale is Ferrara, which recorded a decline of 2.5 per cent, with industry making a negative contribution of two percentage points, whilst the provinces of Romagna have productivity levels below the Italian average. In Ravenna, industry contributed 2.3 percentage points to the increase in value added between 2019 and 2023. This is where the challenge lies: safeguarding the competitiveness of supply chains whilst domestic consumption and orders from abroad are slowing down.
The competitive edge is particularly evident in investment and research. Despite weak revenue forecasts, in 2026 the balance between firms planning to increase investment and those intending to reduce it remains positive, unlike in the services sector. The region ranks first in Italia for research and development expenditure intensity: 4.1 billion invested in 2023, the third-highest figure in the country. Business research alone accounts for 1.6 per cent of GDP, double the Italian average. 19.4 per cent of companies use at least one artificial intelligence technology, compared with the national average of 16.4 per cent. And value added per employee is 7.5 per cent higher than the national average, the fourth-highest figure among the regions. Domestic demand remains the key issue. According to EY, household consumption will grow by 1.1 per cent this year and 0.9 per cent next year, whilst real disposable income will remain essentially flat. Regional industry, following increases in value added of 7.6 per cent in 2022 and 11.4 per cent in 2023, will slow to 1.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year, whilst still maintaining a pace above the Italian average. However, it is above all the national investment forecasts that provide the most worrying signal from the study. The firm estimates that, following growth of 2.7 per cent in 2026, growth will essentially come to a standstill in 2027, falling to 0.1 per cent. This sharp slowdown risks undermining the country’s prospects for development and productivity, just as GDP is expected to slow from 1 per cent to 0.7 per cent. This is a sign that also has implications for Emilia-Romagna, where the ability to invest and innovate represents the manufacturing sector’s main competitive advantage.
