Emissions: Italy to fall by 6.3% in 2023, the transport issue

Emissions: in Italy down by 6.3% in 2023 compared to the previous year. According to Ispra's fourth-quarter updated forecasts, CO2 production will fall in all sectors, while in Europe Eurostat has estimated a 4% drop in the fourth quarter of 2023. In order to read these numbers in perspective, it is necessary to remember that "we are coming from a 2022 characterised by the use of coal-fired power plants due to the gas crisis and a drop in hydroelectric energy due to the drought," explains Riccardo De Lauretis, head of the Ispra office that deals with greenhouse gas emission inventories and scenarios: "2023 saw lower consumption thanks to a mild winter as regards heating, while we estimate a structural impact of 10% thanks to the efficiency of the Superbonus. In addition, 2023 brought a development of renewable capacity and an increase in imports for electricity production. However, there is one sector that is cutting emissions too slowly, -0.5%: it is road transport. We are witnessing a shift to ever-increasing engine capacities in the car fleet, an increase in the use of private cars after Covid, and the lack of penetration of electric vehicles in Italy. Because of these three effects combined we have higher emissions for road transport than 10 years ago'.

Specifically, the expected reductions in 2023 are dragged down by the power generation sector (-18.2%), as mentioned above by heating (-5.7%) and industry (-4.6%). The demand for electricity in 2023 was lower than in the same period in 2022 (-2.8%) and 36.8% was met by renewable energy sources. Industrial production decreased in 2023 by 2.8% compared to 2022.

With regard to road transport, petrol consumption increased by 3.8% while diesel and LPG decreased by 1.9% and 1.4% respectively compared to the same period last year. Gas consumption for domestic and commercial heating decreased by 7.4% in 2023, while the trend in emissions from agriculture and waste management is considered constant.

With a view to achieving carbon neutrality in Europe in 2050, the milestone to 2030 is to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 per cent compared to 1990 levels, with the help of the rules contained in the Fit for 55 per cent package. According to the European Environmental Agency, emissions, including those from international aviation, in the EU decreased by 30% between 1990 and 2021. Current projections by member states suggest that a 48% reduction in net emissions compared to 1990 levels will be achieved by 2030. Although this indicates an increase in ambition from the previously projected 41%, this will still leave a gap to the 2030 target.

The delay can also be seen in the Italian situation. 'As of 2021, under the Effort Sharing Regulation (Esr), we have accumulated 20 million tonnes of CO2 more than we could produce,' notes De Lauretis. The measure, adopted in 2018, sets national targets for the reduction of emissions from road transport, heating of buildings, agriculture, small industrial plants and waste management. These sectors - which until now were not included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) - currently generate around 60 per cent of emissions. The European Commission has therefore proposed a cut in ETS of at least 40 per cent, compared to 2005 levels. A value modulated for Italy at 43.7%.