Unifil's mandate expires at the end of August: countdown for the UN mission in Lebanon now led by Italy

The countdown has begun. The negotiations between the members of the UN Security Council are already underway. What can already be guessed is that the final verdict will in any case have important repercussions for Italy, beyond the outcome of the negotiations. Born with Resolution 425 adopted on 19 March 1978 by the UN Security Council, following Israel's invasion of Lebanon (March 1978), the mandate of Unifil, the UN mission in South Lebanon, has since been extended several times.

The final word is always with the Security Council, of which five permanent members are members with veto rights: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. It is he who decides whether or not to extend the international operation. The current mandate, renewed on 28 August 2024, will expire on 31 August. Which, when it comes to politics and diplomacy, means that time is running out. This is a mission for stability and security in one of the most sensitive areas of the Middle East.

Italy is an 'interested' spectator in this game, as it plays a leading role in the mission. On 24 June in Naqura, the headquarters of the UN interposition force in Lebanon, General Diodato Abagnara took command of Unifil, and placed himself at the head of the international contingent. The ceremony was also attended by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano, one of the five Italians who have led Unifil since the start of the second phase of the mission (August 2006) (the others were Claudio Graziano, Paolo Serra and Stefano Del Col). Abagnara took over from Spanish General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz and since then has been coordinating the work of almost 10,000 soldiers from 48 countries, 1,000 of whom from Italy (the Italian contingent is the second largest after the Indonesian one). On 2 August, the Brigata Taurinense picked up the baton from the Brigata Pozzuoli del Friuli, assuming responsibility for the Joint Tak Force - Lebanon Sector-West of Unifil, with the Bilateral Mission for Lebanon (MIBIL) and the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L).

The Italian government has made a move. In mid-June, on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres. As a note from Palazzo Chigi reported on that occasion, 'the conversation focused on the UN80 initiative for a reform of the United Nations system to increase its efficiency, and on Italy's role within the organisation with particular reference to the Unifil mission'. A month later, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani flew to Washington to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On that occasion they also talked about how to stabilise the situation in Lebanon. Tajani emphasised that the capabilities and presence of the United Nations in southern Lebanon must be supported and improved.

In early June, Jerusalem Post and Israel Hayom, citing unspecified sources, wrote that the US and Israel had agreed that Unifil should cease its operations in South Lebanon. The US administration had reportedly decided not to renew the mandate and Israel had apparently "not tried to convince them otherwise".