US energy, NextEra and Dominion tie the knot in the name of AI

After almost two decades of stagnation, electricity consumption has been growing again in the United States since 2024, driven largely by AI, and forecasts indicate that the trend is set to continue, even intensify.

According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (Nerc), peak summer demand for electricity could grow by as much as 224 GW over the next ten years, the equivalent of the consumption of 180 million homes.

The Energy Information Administration (Eia) predicts record electricity consumption in the US this year and next: from 4,195 billion kilowatt hours in 2025, it is expected to rise to 4,248 kWh in 2026 and 4,379 billion in 2027, when for the first time in history the commercial sector could overtake the residential sector. Prices are rising in parallel: overseas, bills have risen by an average of 40 per cent over the last five years.

NextEra together with Dominion will be strengthened on all major development axes of the industry, including the regulated business, which will account for about 80 per cent of revenues after the merger. The new group will have more than 10 million customers and a potential market extended to 13 US states.

In fact, Dominion brings with it access to the PJM Interconnection, the most extensive distribution network in the country. The jewel in the crown, however, is the strong presence in Virginia (as well as in North and South Carolina), i.e. precisely in the area where data centres for AI are developing most. The so-called 'Data Centre Alley' in Northern Virginia is the area with the highest concentration of data centres in the world and one of those where electricity consumption is increasing the most. Dominion counts Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Equinix, CoreWeave and CyrusOne among its customers.

NextEra itself last year signed an agreement with Google (Alphabet) to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear power plant in Iowa. In the regulated business, however, the utility is mainly rooted in Florida, where it serves about 6 million consumers. Dominion has 3.6 million.

The merger, which the two companies expect to complete in 12-18 months, must get the green light from a long list of authorities: not only antitrust, but also energy, at the federal level and in the individual states where there are operations. NextEra has pledged to pay Dominion a $4.8 billion breaking fee if the deal is blocked. But the market seems to have some doubts about the outcome, judging by the performance of the two companies' stocks on Wall Street.

Dominion's shares rose more than 10 per cent yesterday in some trading, but never above $70, against a bid that valued them at $76 each. NextEra, on the other hand, lost about 6 per cent.