Unem's preliminary results

Energy: Italy's energy bill falls to 48.5 billion in 2024. Spending on oil and gas falls

The data illustrated by the association's president, Gianni Murano: 'Oil is confirmed as the first source with a weight of around 39%'.

by Celestina Dominelli

5' min read

5' min read

In 2024, Italy's energy bill fell to 48.5 billion (18.6 billion more than in 2023, -28%) due to the drop in international quotations for both oil and gas, which had a positive impact on how much our country paid to procure supplies. The estimate comes from the preliminary results of Unem (the Union of Energies for Mobility), which were illustrated today by president Gianni Murano at a press briefing also attended by the director general of the Confindustria Studies Centre Alessandro Fontana and the director of Quattroruote, Ruoteclassiche and Quattroruote Fleet & Business, Gian Luca Pellegrini.

Expenditure on oil and gas supplies falls

More than 80% of this reduction is due, according to the association, to lower outlay for oil and gas supplies. Expenditure on electricity imports (-26%) and especially on solid fuels (-60%) also fell. The weight on GDP is around 2.2 per cent compared to 5.7 per cent in 2022 when it exceeded EUR 144 billion. Murano also provided a cross-section of expenditure, with the oil bill expected to be EUR 21.2 billion in 2024, a decrease of EUR 7.6 billion (-26%) due to lower crude oil imports and international prices.

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Tax revenues

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In the pre-consensus presented by Unem's president, there is a precise snapshot of the tax revenue guaranteed by mineral oils: in 2024 the bar is set at around 42 billion euros, an increase of 0.9% (+400 million euros) compared to 2023, as a result of the higher excise revenue (+2.6%, 700 million euros more) due to the increase in consumption, particularly of petrol, and the lower VAT revenue (-2.1%, -300 million) due to the fall in prices.

Decarbonizzare trasporti pesanti, convegno Unem con Rie Bologna

Energy demand

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According to Unem's check, which also examined Italian energy demand, in 2024 demand is estimated at the same level as in 2023, at around 144.3 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent), but 8.7% lower than in 2019 (-14 Mtoe), more than 80% of which is due to the sharp drop in gas (-11 Mtoe). In the period 2019-2024, CO2 emissions related to overall energy demand decreased by 15%, not only due to the growth of renewables, but also due to increased energy efficiency.

The energy mix

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As for the energy mix, oil remained the primary source of energy with a weight of about 39%, up 1.7% (+0.9 Mtoe), largely due to the recovery of fuels and, more generally, of mobility products, favoured by the resilience of the services and tourism sector. On the other hand, industrial and petrochemical consumption fell. Gas, on the other hand, ranked second among the country's energy sources and limited the drop to minus 0.7% (-0.3 Mtoe). Turning to the other sources, renewables, which also include biofuels, are the energy sources with the best dynamics of the year, with a growth of 12% (+3.4 Mtoe) due to the decidedly favourable results of electricity production. The record overall increase of more than 20 terawatt hours of hydro (+35%) and photovoltaics (+31%) together more than offset the modest declines in geothermal and wind power. Coal, on the other hand, with minus 63% (-3.8 Mtoe), plummeted to an all-time low as a result of the drastic reduction in its use in electricity generation, where it contributed about 1%, compared to 5% last year.

The consumption front

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Oil consumption as a whole showed progress of 1.7% compared to 2023, supported by the good performance of gasoline (+5.8%) and jet fuel (+10.2%), which both exceeded pre-pandemic levels (+3%). Taking mobility products alone (gasoline, diesel, automotive LPG, jet fuel and bunker fuels), which account for 72% of total sales, the progress becomes 3.7% compared to 2023 and 1.9% compared to pre-pandemic values, confirming the centrality of these products (including biofuels) in our country's mobility. Considering fuels alone (petrol, diesel and automotive LPG, with their increasingly substantial bio component), the percentage change becomes +2.6%, with petrol approaching 9 million tonnes in 2024. It is worth noting that Italy, among the main European countries, is the only one that has seen an increase in fuel sales with respect to both 2019 and 2023. This result is due to the growth in travel where the private car is the dominant choice.

The circulating fleet

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Italy has the second largest car fleet in the EU and the third largest number of new registrations. It is also one of the countries with the highest motorisation rate (69 cars per 100 inhabitants), with electric vehicles accounting for 0.5% of the total. Looking at the dynamics of car registrations, in 2024 the clear prevalence of the used car market over the new car market is confirmed, which compared to 2019 showed a drop of 18%, used cars being 94% characterised by traditional engines: diesel (45%), petrol (39%). The uncertainty of motorists with respect to new engines and the associated costs continue to drive the choice towards the second-hand market. On the other hand, decarbonisation is being supported by the penetration of low-carbon liquid and gaseous fuels, which in 2024 will account for 12.5% of fuels consumed. And the hybridisation of the car fleet continues, a trend that can also be observed in major European countries.

The import of crude oil

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As far as crude oil imports are concerned, they were down by 8.3% in 2024, also affected by critical issues at the Hormuz junction and in the Suez Canal. Libya again became our largest supplier with a weight of 20.3%, followed by Azerbaijan (16.6%) and Kazakhstan (15%). Decisive progress was made in arrivals from Africa, which, with a weight of about 36%, is our first area of supply. Overall, in 2024 we imported 85 types of crude oil from 27 different countries, consolidating the trend towards diversification of areas of origin. This reflects the lower refinery processing, which in total amounted to 66.2 million tonnes, down 4.1% compared to 2023 and with a plant utilisation rate down to 74% from 78% last year. This result is largely due to the start of the transformation of the Livorno refinery into a biorefinery.

The Refining Chapter

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Investments on refining assets are recovering, both for their gradual transformation to the production of low carbon fuels, and to continue to ensure the efficiency and safety of traditional plants. In this context is the issue of fuel distribution, which in recent years has seen an increase in the number of brands present, from 210 in 2019 to 310 today. This is an increasingly atomised and inefficient network, considering that around 20% have a supply of less than 400,000 litres/year and only 3% have supplies in line with the European average.

Fuel prices

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In October, fuel prices at the pump in 2024 reached their lowest level in 24 months, with an annual average of 1.822 euro/litre for petrol and 1.718 euro/litre for diesel, a drop of between 5 and 8 euro cents/litre compared to 2023, in line with international market trends. The lower fuel prices resulted in savings for motorists of approximately EUR 2.7 billion, or EUR 103 on average per household. In terms of industrial prices, i.e. after taxes, a negative gap to other European countries of 2.1 euro cents/litre on a weighted average is confirmed in 2024.atur

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