Energy efficiency and real estate, the tertiary sector leads the market with investments of up to 29 billion in 2025

The energy efficiency sector in Italia enters a new phase. If until 2024 instruments such as the Superbonus had made the residential sector the absolute protagonist, in 2025 the end of tax incentives redefined the balance. Thus, the tertiary sector emerges as the new market driver, thanks to a reduced dependence on bonuses and an increasing focus on the redevelopment of non-residential buildings.

According to the Energy Efficiency & Green Building Report 2026, drawn up by the Polimi School of Management's Energy & Strategy, which will be presented on 13 May, investments in energy efficiency in 2025 will be between EUR 53 and 62 billion. Despite the overall figure holding up, the internal composition has changed profoundly. Investments in the tertiary sector grew to between 25 and 29 billion compared to 24-28 billion in 2024. The industrial sector rose to a range between 2.5 and 3.2 billion, driven by the Transition 5.0 Plan. In contrast, the residential sector dropped dramatically to 24-27 billion from the previous 33-36 billion. Public administration also recorded a slight drop to between 2 and 2.8 billion, focusing more on nZEB (Nearly Zero Energy Building) buildings.

"Talking about green buildings today means redefining the very concept of real estate value," explains Federico Frattini, deputy director of Energy & Strategy and head of the report. "The performance of new buildings will be assessed not only on the basis of how much they consume, but also on the impact generated by being built, managed and decommissioned, measuring the global warming potential throughout their life cycle. In order to assess the benefits of transforming certain types of buildings in Italy's building stock, the report estimates the investment needed for a major renovation.

In the private tertiary sector (commercial activities, offices), assuming that interventions are concentrated on buildings belonging to the lowest energy classes (F and G) with the aim of bringing them up to A, the estimated investment required exceeds 17 billion. Such an operation would generate proportionate benefits: almost 2 billion in annual bill savings and over 3 million tonnes of CO2 avoided. If we look at public buildings such as hospitals or schools, about 580 million would be needed for the former (which would entail a reduction in energy expenditure of more than 110 million per year and a reduction in emissions of more than 400,000 tonnes of CO2), while for the latter, capital of between 6 and 7.5 billion would be needed, against which an annual saving on energy expenditure of between 850 million and 1.1 billion would be achieved.

Despite investment flows already on the ground, Italia is lagging behind on the decarbonisation of the construction supply chain. And with directives such as the Green House directive to respond to, the need is to accelerate.