Profit-taking on Eni, but analysts like the 2026-30 Plan

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Profit-taking on Eni in the aftermath of the presentation of the new five-year Strategic Plan 2026-30, which highlighted a stronger E&P production growth profile, improved cash generation targets and a strengthened shareholder distribution policy. The plan, considered 'solid' by observers, is liked by analysts, as confirmed by the fact that Hsbc raised its target price to EUR 21 from EUR 17.5 (Hold rating) and Jefferies improved its price target to EUR 27 from EUR 23 (Buy rating). "The plan reinforces Eni's profile as a solid cash and production story with low leverage, and further upside linked to commodity prices and execution; we see room for positive earnings and CF revisions in the medium term," says Equita, which confirms the 'buy' rating and raises the target price by 6% to €25.5 per share. Therefore, in addition to the profit-taking after the +3.75% rise on the eve of the trading, the share price fluctuations of crude oil, which is little moved after Thursday's acceleration, are also dampening the share price.

After all, the Capital Markets Day revealeda balanced plan that is conservative in assumptions (Brent at around USD 70 per barrel in 2026 and with an average value of USD 77.5 over the plan period), but with solid and convincing cash generation growth, thanks to the track record in upstream/midstream in terms of discoveries, portfolio and execution. "The outlook is in line, but with upside potential and better remuneration," explains Equita. Intermonte's comments were also positive, raising the target price from EUR 19 to EUR 22 and 'upgraded estimates to reflect mainly higher oil and gas prices. We also slightly increase Upstream volumes, increase Ggp and Refining margins for 2026, and reduce petrochemicals margins. These changes translate into an upward revision of earnings per share estimates by 63% this year, 23% in 2027 and 6% in 2028'.