Entrepreneurs see signs of recovery, also at work
4' min read
4' min read
The global scenario is moving towards a season of trade instability. The prospects of a return to protectionist policies in the United States, under Trumpian leadership, have opened 2025 with measures that are more vexatious than structural: tariffs imposed suddenly in response to political decisions - as in the case of Colombia or Canada - and continued bilateral threats. And yet, although a climate of concern hovers in Europe, with the European Commission declaring itself ready to respond appropriately to the challenges imposed by Washington, for Italy the risk does not yet appear systemic, albeit potentially painful.
The latest news, in order of arrival, is the announcement of 25% duties on cars imported from Europe and on agri-food products, effective yesterday, 2 April.
In 2023, Italy's exports to the US reached EUR 66 billion, driven by high value-added goods destined for high-end consumers. A selective increase in duties on already taxed goods would imply an additional cost estimated at EUR 3.7 billion, with effective taxation rising from 1.7% to 5.6%. If US demand remained solid, the impact would be limited; otherwise, exports are assumed to fall by up to 1.8 billion, which could be partly offset by reallocation to other markets. Moreover, Italy, with an export/GDP ratio of 34%, is among the European countries least dependent on exports, which makes it structurally more resilient to external trade shocks.
This is not to say that there will not be specific sectors or specific companies affected to a very significant extent: some sectors have a very high concentration of exports to the US and, therefore, have less ability to diversify supply by mitigating the effects of tariffs.
Even in the event of a loss of momentum on the US front, Italian companies must pragmatically look to new outlets, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This attitude is also supported by domestic political stability which, compared to the uncertainty in other European countries, is now a factor of confidence. The solidity of the current government makes it possible to plan with greater serenity, at least in the short to medium term. Giorgia Meloni reminded us just a few days ago with pride that hers is already the 5th longest government in the history of the Republic. In parallel, the recent German elections have reduced fears about the resilience of Europe's leading economy, after months of technical recession: news that also reflects positively on Italy, given the integration of the respective production chains.
