By 2100, the European population will return to the levels seen in the 1970s

Older and fewer in number. This is what Europeans will be like in 2100, according to the third edition of the report ‘Demographic transformation in the EU’, published on 14 July by the European Commission. According to the analysis, after peaking at 453.3 million people in 2029, the European population will fall to 398.8 million by 2100. This would represent an 11.7 per cent reduction compared with current figures, taking the Old Continent back to the second half of the 1970s. Even the median age – the age at which half the population is younger and half older – could undergo a drastic change. The EU study, in fact, reports a projection for 2100 of 51.5 years, compared with the 44.9 years recorded at EU level on 1 January 2025. The situation varies considerably across Member States: whilst in Ireland the median was 39.6 years at the start of last year, in Italia it was already 49.1 years.

The ageing population is one of the greatest demographic challenges Europe will face in the coming decades: a paradigm shift towards the ‘society of longevity’, which is what Brussels predicts lies ahead. To this must be added a further factor: the decline in the total fertility rate. To maintain a stable population in the absence of migration, the rate should be around 2.1: in 2025, in Italia, it did not even reach 1.2 and, despite estimates of growth, by 2100 it will remain just under 1.5.

With net migration at zero, the report argues, the European population would fall by 32 per cent (around 130 million fewer people) compared with 2025. However, according to the study, even migration will not be sufficient to offset the natural decline in population resulting from the fall in the fertility rate. In terms of the world’s population, Europe is estimated to account for 3.4 per cent of the global population in 2100, compared with 5.4 per cent in 2025.

According to the analysis, these demographic shifts as a whole would lead to changes in the economic situation of countries and to the widening of inequalities. Between 2025 and 2050, in fact, it is estimated that the EU will lose around 1.2 million people of working age (aged between 15 and 64, ed.). This figure doubles to 2.4 million if a scenario without immigration is considered. European welfare, pension and healthcare systems were designed to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population, with a solid base of young people.

The new demographic landscape therefore calls for reflection on the sustainability of these models and on the needs of citizens. According to the report, in order to mitigate the effects of the decline in the working-age population, it will be essential to encourage the participation of under-represented groups, such as women or young people. Ensuring a better match between the skills on offer and those in demand, whilst making the most of highly qualified candidates, will be essential. To boost productivity, it will be crucial to integrate AI: as the Draghi report highlighted, the slow uptake of new technologies is one of the reasons for the productivity gap between the EU and its competitors.