Ethiopia, Rebirth Dam kicks off amid tensions with Egypt and Sudan

The wait has lasted almost 15 years. Now there is the official debut, but the enthusiasm of the hosts clashes with the nervousness of an already tumultuous region. Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country, will inaugurate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on 9 September: the maxi-dam on the Blue Nile that is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity when fully operational, doubling Ethiopia's current capacity and freeing the former economic 'miracle' from the energy poverty that deprives 60 of Ethiopia's 130 million-plus people of access to electricity. Addis Ababa speaks of a natural 'aspiration' of Ethiopia and assures that the infrastructure will also produce benefits on the rest of the region, guaranteeing water resources equal to those ensured so far and launching an energy export in favour of the countries in the area: the government's goal is to collect USD 427 million a year in foreign sales between 2025 and 2026 alone, with about USD 300 million coming from companies in the mining sector.

Egypt and Sudan have been contesting the project for years and reiterate their fears of a paralysis of the water supply, with the risk of a lethal blow to economies that depend on the river's water supply. Cairo owes around 90 per cent of its supplies to the Nile and classifies the 'Gerd' as a threat to its very economic survival.

The Ethiopian government has tried to defuse tensions and speaks of the dam as a 'collective' infrastructure, foreseeing regional repercussions. Egypt and Sudan have issued a note denouncing the 'violations of international law' and the 'serious consequences' on downstream countries, suggesting a less than friendly approach to the new phase of the infrastructure.

Work on the Gerd began in 2011, triggering intermittent tensions between Ethiopia's energy aspirations and the water (and political) claims of Egypt and Sudan. The infrastructure represents Africa's largest dam and has already begun filling operations months ago, with over 10 turbines already in action: a step forward for Addis Ababa and the triggering of new sparks with Khartoum and above all Cairo, hostile to an initiative that is also seen as a symbolic snub to the weight of the Nile on Egypt's identity and economic security. The three countries have been holding periodic rounds of negotiations for years, but the goal of an agreement has always run aground over the original disagreements and some more specific clauses, including the release of water quotas during droughts that wear Egypt down.

At its maximum capacity, the facility is expected to hold 74 billion cubic metres of water. According to estimates released by Abbas Sharaky, Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, the infrastructure had already reached reserves of 64 billion cubic metres of water as of September 2025, compared to 60 billion reached in September of the previous year. "If you store 60 billion cubic metres of water that previously flowed into Egypt, won't you create a damage?" Sharaky pointed out to the British broadcaster BBC, echoing the doubts that hover in the political controversy and among the most pessimistic estimates of the effects of a project opposed from the outset and even more controversial against the backdrop of the economic crisis gripping Cairo.