Economic impact of the Ets system on Italian industry: costs, sectors and requests for revision

'The Ets system was created with the aim of supporting the decarbonisation of European industry but is proving to be a source of financial speculation and extra costs on electricity,' explains Aurelio Regina, delegate of the president of Confindustria for Energy.

"All the efforts that industry could make to decarbonise," he continues, "have been made in the twenty-three years that the mechanism has been in force. In the coming years, there will be no mature and available technologies, so the Ets only risk fuelling the relocation of production.

The application of the Ets is now anachronistic compared to the geopolitical evolution we are experiencing, and is in fact a threat to European competitiveness and security. For these reasons we strongly support its immediate suspension'.

"In the five-year period 2026-2030, the estimated cost of CO2 is equivalent to about half of the annual investments of the ceramic industry," adds Augusto Ciarrocchi, president of Confindustria Ceramica.

"The tile industry," he emphasises, "has invested an average of EUR 400 million per year over the last ten years, about EUR 4 billion in total, or 6.9 per cent of the average annual turnover.

Nomisma Energia (in a study prior to the Iran war), estimated the average annual costs of ceramics for Ets at around 130 million euro in the period 2021-2025, expected to rise to 190 in 2026-2030 and to 225 in 2031-2035. The current extreme volatility makes it difficult to substantiate the estimates.

"Our data confirm that, between 2021 and 2024, the incidence of energy costs on the value of chemical production has risen from 14 to 18 per cent, also considering the use as raw material, with much higher peaks for fertilisers, basic chemicals and polymers," points out the president of Federchimica Francesco Buzzella.

"Overall,' he adds, 'between direct and indirect costs for CO2 emissions, the chemical industry pays more than EUR 600 million in one year, a burden that does not burden non-European producers and is equivalent to the entire R&R expenditure of the sector. In a 2030 scenario, the total cost could double to over EUR 1.5 billion. The cost of CO2 almost tripled from 2019 to 2025, with a tendency to increase in the future. In 2026, the incidence of energy costs could reach 23% of the production value'.

Other sectors also see rising costs. Assocarta estimates for the Italian paper industry in 2026 a cost for Ets of around 200 million, equal to about 2.5 per cent of the sector's annual turnover (which in 2025 had paid 120 million, thanks to a different allocation of free quotas), to which must be added the expenditure for gas: 1 billion in 2025 (12.6 per cent of turnover).

For Assovetro, Ets in 2026 is about 3% of the industry's industrial costs, to be added to another 2.5% in indirect costs due to electricity. It is in fact a tax on glassworks because, in the immediate term, the association argues, there is a lack of technological alternatives for competitive decarbonisation. And the short-term projection, for the beginning of the 1930s, is that these costs will come to weigh more than 11% of the total industrial costs, if the mechanism is left untouched.

"Energy users propose that the European Council address the issue with concrete tools: first of all, by releasing the margins of the Stability Pact to allow extraordinary interventions to support companies and production systems, pending a thorough review of the ETS system, which under the current conditions risks further aggravating the cost of energy," says Antonio Gozzi, president of Federacciai. 'The goal,' he reiterates, 'must be to stabilise energy prices in Europe, because without competitive energy there can be no competitive or sustainable industry.