EU appointments, negotiations in extremis Meloni-von der Leyen to avoid Italy's isolation in Europe

With only a few hours to go before the start of the European Council no one is yet able to predict how Italy will position itself. The very tough speech of Giorgia Meloni in front of the Parliament would suggest a rejection - perhaps in the form of abstention - of Ursula von der Leyen's encore at the head of the European Commission. The premier questioned both the method and the merit in the selection of the European top jobs. The accusation was that they would not respect the verdict that came out of the ballot box on 9 June.

On paper, however, the majority formed around von der Leyen, the socialist Antonio Costa for the role of President of the European Council and the Estonian liberal Kaja Kellas as High Representative for Foreign Policy would have the numbers. The three groups representing them are worth about 400 votes, thus above the quorum of 361 or absolute majority. The problem, however, is that this vote is cast secretly and therefore franchi tiratories abound. The rough count being made in these hours is that there will be at least 50 of them. Unlike the President of the European Council, who will be elected at the summit that is about to open in Brussels, the final yes for the Commission presidency comes from Parliament. So even if von der Leyen is nominated by the European Council between today and tomorrow as the new Commission president, the chances of her passing the Strasbourg plenary on 18 July are anything but favourable. And this is where Meloni comes in, who with the 24 votes of the Fratelli d'Italia MEPs can offer von der Leyen a parachute to pass the Strasbourg plenary's scrutiny.

It was also five years ago. Then it was the Five Stars represented in Brussels by Giuseppe Conte who gave Ursula a helping hand. However, the tones used by the premier do not allow for easy predictions. Rumours gathered between Rome and Brussels speculate on a differentiated vote: Meloni would vote against Costa's election and abstain on von der Leyen. Someone recalls that Angela Merkel did so too. But only for 'formal' reasons, linked to the change of horses in the running, namely the replacement of the then spitzkandidaten Manfred Weber (current president of the EPP) with another popular, von der Leyen precisely. The choice of von der Leyen had in fact been fully supported by the German Chancellor who had been, together with Emmanuel Macron, the architect of it. Here, however, it is a 'no' or political abstention.

The President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella after his customary breakfast meeting with the premier and some ministers on the eve of the European summit, has let slip a message in which he warns that 'Italy cannot be disregarded' for the choice of European governance. It is a message certainly addressed to Brussels, to Germany and France, offering support to the premier. But it also has an internal implication. Italy cannot be left out, but neither must it keep itself out. Also because the dossiers that concern us are numerous and heavy, starting with the last one: the infringement procedure for deficit. A head-on clash with the future Brussels executive certainly does not help. And this is what Antonio Tajani, who is not only vice-premier and leader of Forza Italia but also vice-president of the European People's Party, is also repeating in these hours. The risk is that in the end Italy will present itself at the vote with a government majority divided between those in favour (Forza Italia), those against (the League has also reiterated this in Parliament) and abstainers, as Meloni might decide to do at the European Council.