EU budget: drastic cuts coming for cohesion and social spending

In the next EU multiannual budget (MFF) 2028-2034, the funds allocated to the Member States will be reduced by an average of 8%, from EUR 759 billion to EUR 698 billion at constant prices. For Italia the reduction will be even higher, 12%, which translated in absolute value means a little more than 10 billion (from 82.45 to 72.39 billion). In this ranking of cuts, contained in an internal European Parliament study obtained by Il Sole 24 Ore, Italia is in good company: France, Spain and Portugal are also set to lose 12%, in line with Germany's -11%. Poland remains by far the first beneficiary country, the only one above 100 billion, thanks to a reduction in funding from the European budget of 'only' 5%.

In absolute terms, Italia and Spain suffer the most. This is the first comparison with a high degree of reliability and predictability between the Commission's proposal for the new 2028-2034 multiannual budget and the 2021-2027 multiannual budget. All amounts, old and new, are in constant 2025 prices to make the comparison more meaningful.

But beyond the overall figures per country, the calculations on individual policies are striking, in particular agriculture, cohesion and social spending that the 'single fund' regulation in practice pits against each other and against migration and security policies. "Both agriculture and cohesion policy are subject to minimum allocations," reads the document. "For many member states - particularly the larger ones - these minimum levels are significantly lower than the allocations of the MFF 2021-2027."

According to the Europarliament study, cohesion and social spending are likely to suffer the most. Only in the best case scenario (all member states allocate the entire flexible quota to cohesion) would theregional policies receive the same amount as the current budget: 364 billion against 362. In the opposite hypothesis, the cohesion dowry would be almost halved, to EUR 194 billion. For Italia, which has 42.1 billion for regional cohesion policies in 21-27, the range is between 20.2 and 37.8 billion: almost 5 billion less (at constant prices) even in the best case. This is, for the regions, documented confirmation of a bad news that had been in the air for some time.

The same is true for social policies, which in the 21-27 budget are entrusted to the European Social Fund Plus (ESF+) with an endowment of almost 96 billion, while in the next one they will not have a dedicated fund but a 'horizontal' expenditure target ranging from a minimum of 31.8 billion to a maximum of 55.5: 42% less at best. It is even worse for Italia, which compared to the 15 billion of the ESF+ will have no more than 5.7 billion for social spending. But it could also be much less.