Telecommunications

European telecoms under pressure following Wind3’s disappointing results

Analysts confirm the “need for a consolidation deal with Iliad, the only industrial partner still available”

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Telecoms shares in Europe are under pressure (the Euro Stoxx 600 sector index is down 0.1%), with analysts highlighting the need for market consolidation following Wind3’s disappointing first-half results.

To begin with, CK Hutchison (the parent company of Wind3, which closed down 3.04 per cent on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) stated that its businesses had recorded a mixed but generally solid first half of the year, with gains in retail, ports, infrastructure and investments offsetting pressures in telecoms and the loss of port operations in Panama. In particular, therefore, telecoms remained the most problematic division. In Europe, in fact, competition in Austria and the loss of wholesale revenue from Wind3 weighed on results, despite the company pushing ahead with cost-cutting measures and productivity tools based on artificial intelligence.

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Thus, in light of Wind3’s ‘disappointing’ results, Intermonte analysts confirm the “need for a consolidation deal with Iliad, the only industrial partner still available, in a context where Italia is the only one of CK Hutchison’s European markets still contracting”.

More specifically, Wind3’s revenue in the first six months of 2026 fell by 4 per cent year-on-year, and the gross margin dropped by 5 per cent compared with the same period the previous year, impacted by the loss of a number of wholesale contracts, which was only partially offset by a slight improvement in the net margin on customer services. Consequently, EBITDA and EBIT fell by 11% and 73% year-on-year respectively at constant exchange rates. Cost control and lower depreciation and amortisation only partially offset the decline in the gross margin. The EBITDA margin stood at 33%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year, whilst operating free cash flow (€340 million, -8% year-on-year) showed greater resilience, standing at 18.5% of revenue (-0.8 percentage points year-on-year) thanks to a reduction in capital expenditure (13.1% of revenue, -1.6 percentage points year-on-year).

According to the company’s outlook, the telecoms sector is expected to remain under pressure, but the group has stated that it is focusing on cost reduction, customer retention and productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.

According to Intermonte’s experts, a reduction in the number of operators would help the market in this sector to recover, which would also benefit TIM: the SIM estimates a potential growth of around 250 million euros per year in terms of additional revenue/EBITDA for every 1-euro increase in average revenue per user for mobile and consumer broadband services.

In particular, according to analysts, “Tim could benefit from this potential upturn as a future shareholder in Poste Italiane, particularly because the integration between Tim and Poste could help to accelerate the recovery of the market in Italia”. Experts believe, in fact, that the merger between TIM and Poste could increase the pressure on smaller operators “to undergo consolidation in order to grow in size and better compete with a player able to rely on the country’s most extensive distribution network, comprising around 13,000 post offices and 4,000 TIM retail outlets”.

The broker’s current target price for Poste Italiane (33 euros per share) incorporates, with a 30 per cent probability, a market recovery scenario that could generate around €500 million in additional annual EBITDA (net present value of €2.8 per share), thanks to a €2 increase in TIM’s average revenue per consumer user (mobile and broadband), “sufficient,” explains Intermonte, “to bridge the gap with the European average, at least in the mobile telephony market”.

At present, however, shares in companies in the sector are being weighed down by the gloomy outlook outlined by CK Hutchison: on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB -0.23%), Poste Italiane fell by 0.63% to €27.02, whilst TIM fell by 0.41% to €7.593. Orange was also down, by 0.06% in Paris, and Vodafone by 0.54% in London.

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