Evasion risk grows in 10 million second homes

A potentially overwhelming phenomenon. Which affects one third of the housing units in Italy today. The renewed threat of tax evasion in construction, linked to the very frequent cutting of bonuses from 50 to 36%, is not only explained by the reduction in the effect of the contrast of interests. What makes the problem even more slippery is its very broad scope: there are 10 million properties that will suffer the cut in rebates for various renovation and minor maintenance works, such as the replacement of window frames, the replacement of the boiler or the installation of air conditioners with heat pumps.

The numbers are contained in the latest statistics from the Department of Finance and the Revenue Agency. Which explain which are the real estate units different from main dwellings, for which therefore it will not be possible to prove one of the requirements of the Budget Law 2025 to obtain the 50 per cent. Residential dwellings rented are approximately 3.6 million, those granted free use are just under 800 thousand and, finally, those left at the disposal of their owner, with no particular use, are 5.7 million. The total is just over 10 million, out of an estate of 32.7 million properties, which will have to make do with 36 per cent. Those qualifying as main home are just under 20 million. The new facilitation requirements, in short, have cut off an important slice of Italians' homes from the most generous discounts.

But which interventions will be affected? The new system of reduced bonuses affects the two rebates from which most maintenance work passes: the ecobonus and the ordinary renovation bonus. So, if we think about the most frequently carried out interventions in our homes, these are all destined to be cut to 36% in 2025. This is the case for frames, awnings, air conditioners with heat pumps, rewiring and the reconstruction of interior walls. Some works, such as the installation of condensing boilers or the landscaping of gardens will not even get a discount.

Assuming a small 1,100 euro job (including 10% VAT), the choice could be between the full price with a 40 euro deduction per year, for ten years, and an immediate 200 euro discount. Not to mention that declaring the work may entail extra costs, linked to a professional, such as those for submitting a file to the municipality or for communication to Enea. Faced with this prospect, many may choose the quickest route to obtain an immediate benefit.

It is evident, therefore, that the contraction effect of investments with a probable shift to the black, estimated by the Cna Tax Policy Department and already in place in 2025, will mainly affect these properties, i.e. second homes at disposal and rented. With an aggravating factor. From 2026 this cut will be even harsher. The Budget Law 2025, in fact, has planned a further cut, which will take first homes from 50 to 36% and second homes from 36 to 30.