Linke comes first in Berlin. In Mecklenburg, the AfD stands at 38 per cent and the CDU is out. But Merz says: ‘Let’s press ahead with the reforms’

In the capital, 2.5 million eligible voters were called to the polls. Turnout stood at 73 per cent, compared with 63 per cent in the 2023 elections (the 2021 elections were annulled due to irregularities, without the parliamentary term being reset). The CDU secured 28 per cent of the vote. Die Linke stood at 12 per cent, and the AfD at 9 per cent. The Social Democrats and the Greens secured 18 per cent.

In Mecklenburg (1.3 million voters), the AfD has made a comeback: preliminary results put it at 38.2 per cent. For the first time, it has overtaken the SPD (35.5 per cent), which had been the leading party in the state since 1994.

The CDU has therefore fallen below the threshold and been overtaken by Die Linke and the Greens. The Christian Democrats had never before even been at risk of being excluded from a regional parliament.

Under these circumstances, there are enough votes for a majority comprising the SPD, Die Linke (6.5 per cent) and the Greens (5.7 per cent), with the far right remaining in opposition. The red-brown movement, Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance, is itself outside Parliament, with 4.8 per cent, and will not be able to offer her support, as it offered to do in Saxony-Anhalt.

One of the AfD’s two co-leaders, Tino Chrupalla, was quick to state, however, that in Mecklenburg his party had ‘clearly been given a mandate to govern: we will offer talks to everyone’. The other co-leader, Alice Weidel, has gone on the offensive, calling on Merz to “face the consequences” and abandon the policy of isolation, which prevents the Christian Democrats from engaging in any form of cooperation.

In the 2021 elections,, the SPD had secured 39 per cent, the AfD was at almost 17 per cent – and here too, it doubled its vote share. The CDU stood at 13 per cent. In 1990, it had 38 per cent in what was Angela Merkel’s stronghold (she won a direct mandate in every election from 1990 to 2017). Voter turnout on Sunday was 78 per cent, compared with 71 per cent in 2021.

On the eve of the vote, tensions had run high within the CDU-CSU conservative alliance. A few days before the election, the Chancellor had been forced to cancel his planned trip to New York for the United Nations General Assembly and to convene a party executive meeting starting at 6 pm on Sunday, when the polling stations were due to close.

Friedrich Merz (REUTERS)

He waited barely a quarter of an hour, then, with the first exit polls in hand, he took to the stage at the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus. An unexpected move, intended to make it clear that he intends to ‘move the country and the reforms forward’. Perhaps an attempt to avoid being held to account for the election results. In Mecklenburg, Merz admitted, the result “is a disaster”. As the evening wore on, the situation became even more dire for his party.

Support for the Chancellor is at an all-time low, and the defeat in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September – where the CDU saw its vote halved and the AfD is on the verge of electing its own governor – came as a blow to the Conservatives. Criticism has grown increasingly vocal and explicit, to the point where there is speculation about a mid-term replacement. The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg mark a turning point for Merz in any case. Pressure from the party rank and file is set to increase.

Elif Eralp, the Linke candidate, was beaming: “Dear people of Berlin, today we are changing our city. We have made history in Berlin,” she said immediately after the exit polls.

Elif Eralp (EPA)

For the party, this is its best result in the capital, achieved through an election campaign that focused on the fight against high rents and on young people. Die Linke managed to mobilise more former non-voters than any other party: 75,000 according to analysis by Infratest dimap, compared with 61,000 for the AfD (which took as many as 56,000 voters away from the CDU).

In some constituencies – in the city centre and in the multi-ethnic district of Neukölln – he secured over 50 per cent of the vote.

Her lead over the Christian Democrats is wider than expected, following a neck-and-neck race that lasted for months. Eralp will now be able to attempt to form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens. She would be the first woman from Die Linke and the first person with a migrant background to become mayor of Berlin.