Exor slips in Amsterdam after 2025 numbers, but analysts look to M&A

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Exor down on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange after the release of its 2025 accounts and the announcement of the sale to Gedi's Greek Antenna, including the daily newspaper la Repubblica, radio brands Radio Deejay, Radio Capital, m2o, along with HuffPost Italia, National Geographic Italia, Limes and advertising concessionaire Manzoni. Left out of the transaction were La Stampa, destined for the Sae group, and Stardust, a company dedicated to influencers. Top secret the amount cashed in, although according to rumours it is around 100 million euro. The board of directors of the Agnelli family's financial company has proposed a dividend per share of 0.49 euro per share, for a total of around 100 million euro, in line with last year's disbursement.

The Agnelli family holding company reported a gross asset value of 37.1 billion and a net asset value of 33.2 billion. Earnings per share were down 8.1%, a disappointing result especially when compared to the positive performance of the MSCI World index, up +5.4%. After all, for Exor, 2025 was "a difficult year", due to a number of internal and external factors. The top management also indicated that 2026 will also be "challenging", but with a clear focus on simplifying the portfolio and the possibility of "a significant new investment, in terms of size and ambition, similar to the one in Philips, also thanks to the €2 billion proceeds from the sale of Iveco, Gedi, Lifenet and Duo, which have raised "the liquidity available for investment to over €3.5 billion".

Returning to the 2025 numbers, weighing on Exor's performance were heavy declines recorded by listed investees and primarily by Stellantis (15.5%) and Ferrari (21%). As Il Sole 24 Ore reports today, the geography of the value of the shares held in the companies has changed, with the health world represented by Philips (19% has a value of around 4.2 billion) climbing the ranks, becoming the Agnelli family holding company's second largest asset, behind Ferrari, but ahead of Stellantis (2.4 billion) and Cnh Industrial (2.9bn). Meanwhile, as Intermonte analysts point out, it should also be remembered that Lingotto has exceeded $10bn in assets under management, contributing positively to returns.

"The results confirm a year of transition, with underperformance mainly linked to the negative contribution of the large caps in the portfolio (particularly the listed side), but with structurally positive elements on the capital allocation front". This is the opinion of Intermonte, which recommends an 'Outperform' on Exor, with a price target of €130, double the current price. The sim's analysts appreciate the reinforcement of financial flexibility and investment capacity, recalling that the holding company has available cash in excess of 3.5 billion. In practice, according to Intermonte, there is "the basis for a new 'large-scale' investment in line with Philips". The experts also promoted the strategy of portfolio simplification and greater concentration on a few core assets. "Against this backdrop, even with a weak 2025 performance, the focus clearly shifts to the next leg of capital deployment, which is the main driver for rerating, also in light of a still very high discount to NAV". Thumbs up on Exor also from Equita, which recommends buying the shares for which it calculates a price target of 101 euro.