Housing costs, falling back on renting is often not the solution

Students, out-of-town workers, young couples. All united by the difficulty of paying rent or buying a house. The problem has exploded in the last few years, and while prices continue to gallop in some cities such as Milan and Rome, demand is not drying up; on the contrary, it is being fuelled by those who want to return to the country, especially in the case of the Lombard capital - taking advantage of all the tax benefits introduced such as the flat tax raised yes to 300,000 euros a year with the last Budget law but still very convenient for large assets -, and by those in the capital who chose instead to invest months and months ago to join the network short-term rentals in view of the Jubilee, but not only.

According to data compiled by Scenari Immobiliari over the last ten years, turnover in the Italian residential sector has grown by 61.3%, reaching 133.9 billion euro in 2025 (+8.2% compared to 2024) and with an estimated growth in 2026 of 9.8% (in nominal value). Transactions, according to the latest Inland Revenue data, grew by 8.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2025 - the latest available data - continuing the current positive trend. More is being bought, but proportionally more is being spent. As is also shown by the growth in the average disbursement of individual mortgages.

Looking at the average prices in Italy, which are always an average over the territory with all the differences it encompasses - from the cities with sharply rising quotations to the depressed areas where values plummeted after 2008 and have never recovered - the (nominal) costs per square metre have risen by 3.1% in the last year, by 7.5% in five years and by 10.8% in ten years. A sign that in many areas of the country, the market is travelling towards a stable revaluation. The crux is still wages, which have not been revalued for over 20 years and make it impossible for many to access the real estate market. But even falling back on renting does not improve the situation, except as always in smaller and less desirable cities. In Milan and Rome, it is now impossible to find a studio or small two-room apartment for less than one thousand euro per square metre, a figure that comes dangerously close to the first salary of a young worker.

And with fixed rates forecast to rise to 4% in 2026, it is clear how a monthly mortgage payment will become less and less sustainable for those who cannot rely on a high salary. A demand to buy will spill over into renting, where, moreover, they will not find cheap rents.