Export and production, industry suffers but prepares for recovery

Italy seems to be resisting the economic crisis that the Union is going through better than other European countries and, in Italy, Lombardy has above-average macroeconomic indicators. But this is meagre consolation, since it is not possible for Lombardy's companies to avoid the repercussions of such a complex global economic context. The weakness of Germany and France, the car crisis, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflicts in the Middle East, geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, and the probable strengthening of protectionist policies in the wake of Donald Trump's election to the White House: all exogenous factors that weigh heavily on exports and thus weigh significantly on the economy of a region that is the first in Italy for exports. According to the most recent Sace data, Lombardy accounts for 26% of Italy's total foreign sales, with a value that in 2023 exceeded Euro 163 billion, equal to 37% of the region's GDP.

"Unfortunately, the data processed by Unioncamere Lombardia confirm a slight drop in industrial production in the third quarter as well (-0.4% on an economic basis, ndr) which, although lower than in previous quarters, represents yet another downturn that has been going on for over a year," explains the president of Confindustria Lombardia, Francesco Buzzella. The year-on-year decline is 1%, but 'we still remain the locomotive of Italy, contributing almost 60 billion euro of residual tax revenue, and we are in first place in Europe for manufacturing production,' adds Buzzella, replying to the statement by the Bank of Italy, which, at the end of November, had questioned the region's leading economic role. A role that Lombardy is also trying to consolidate within the Union, thanks to the initiatives of the Region, which is creating synergies with other European industrial territories and has taken on the leadership of Ecrn (European chemical regions network) and Ara (Automotive Regions Alliance, which represents 36 European regions committed to facilitating the transition of the automotive industry and its allied industries), entrusted to Lombardy's councillor for economic development, Guido Guidesi.

Initiatives appreciated by companies because the game for recovery is all played in Europe, says Buzzella: 'The top priority is a strong steering by the Commission on industrial policies. It is not easy, because many regulations and directives have now been approved and are about to come into force, and the Union's mechanisms for amending them are very cumbersome and slow, but the hope is that the Commission that is taking office in these weeks will revise some of the excessively rigid and ideological positions of the previous one and take the Draghi Report as its agenda for the coming years,' the president adds.

The global political and economic scenario is too complex for companies to face it alone, without extraordinary tools to support recovery. Perhaps the most important issue is the cost of energy, which, although far from the peaks reached in the summer of 2023, remains almost three times higher than the price paid for gas before the pandemic, severely undermining the competitiveness of European and in particular Italian products, with entire supply chains at risk of being blown up, starting with the steel industry, of which Brescia is the driving force. "Added to this are the possible indirect repercussions of the protectionist policies announced by Trump," says Buzzella. "We will have to see what action the US president will take after he takes office in January, if he increases import duties as expected. We expect, however, not so much a direct impact on Italian or Lombardy exports, given that sales to the United States are all in all limited compared to those to Europe, as an indirect impact: the risk is that Europe will be flooded with goods from the countries affected by the duties, in particular China, putting our already suffering production in difficulty'.

And here the focus returns to the European Union and its industrial policies, which, according to the Lombard entrepreneurs, have so far had the opposite effect of disintegrating the European manufacturing system, starting with cars but not only. "The Commission's focus in recent years has been on reducing polluting emissions, while other continents have been investing in strengthening their countries' industrial and energy autonomy," says Buzzella. And this has made competition with the rest of the world unbalanced. "Europe has unfortunately lost many bets,' says Buzzella. 'The one on defence, given that we are more dependent than ever on the United States; the one on China, which seemed to be the Eldorado for our products and instead has turned out to be a competitor that plays by different rules. Finally the one on Russia, to which we have delegated gas production without caring that Russia is outside the Union'.