Exports are holding up well in the face of the energy crisis. Diversification is key to growth

Five years in which the global economy has faced challenges that were unimaginable just a few years ago, forcing companies to grapple with entirely new competitive paradigms – both in terms of production and sales – and to continually (and rapidly) review their geographical focus, plans and investment priorities.

“The most significant finding is the ability demonstrated by Italian businesses to continue competing on international markets during an exceptionally challenging period,” says Giovanni Da Pozzo, President of Promos Italia. Between 2021 and 2025, export values held up much better than volumes, and many companies were able to maintain their revenue and market position through pricing and diversification strategies. This ability to adapt is a key strength of our manufacturing system. The challenge now is to consolidate this and make it an increasingly structural feature.”

In 2022, at the height of the energy crisis, Italian exports of goods exceeded 626 billion euros, representing growth of over 20 per cent at current prices. This trend was also driven by rising prices, whilst in subsequent years volumes contracted: down 5.1 per cent in 2023 and down 2.4 per cent in 2024.

In 2025, however, Italian exports returned to growth in terms of both volume and value, exceeding 643 billion euros, with significant regional variations: +13.2 per cent for Central Italy, +2.3 per cent for the North-West, +2.0 per cent for the North-East and +3.2 per cent for the South, whilst the Islands recorded a decline of 11 per cent.

Lombardy remains the leading exporting region, with over 167 billion euros, followed by Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Tuscany and Piedmont.

The sectoral breakdown also played a decisive role, according to the Promos paper. In 2025, the increase in pharmaceutical exports from Tuscany, Lazio, Lombardy, Abruzzo and Campania contributed a total of 2.6 percentage points to national export growth, whilst a further percentage point came from metals and metal products from Tuscany.

The energy situation has improved compared with the peak in 2022: the energy deficit, having exceeded 110 billion euros, fell to 46.9 billion in 2025. However, this remains a strategic issue for business competitiveness. Industrial gas and electricity prices in the European Union are still significantly higher than those of some of its main trading partners.

As mentioned, the figures for the first eight months of the year are positive and encouraging in terms of value growth. However, ‘the trend in volumes and the return of increased pressure on the energy sector confirm that export growth is taking place against a backdrop that remains complex’, the study states.

According to the White Paper, the international competitiveness of businesses must now be assessed alongside their ability to manage risk. “The international competitiveness of SMEs must now also be seen as their ability to operate in conditions of greater structural instability,” adds Da Pozzo. A business may have an excellent product and an attractive target market, but it may be vulnerable if it depends on a single critical supplier, a single logistics route, a single energy source or just a few markets. For this reason, internationalisation strategies must combine an understanding of demand and competitors with an increasingly careful assessment of supply chain risks, energy exposure, logistics and the potential for diversification.”

Before the pandemic, global value chains were assessed primarily on the basis of efficiency and cost. Today, these factors are complemented by continuity, substitutability and geopolitical risk.

For internationalised SMEs, it is therefore essential to understand not only the contribution of individual target markets to turnover, but also the concentration of suppliers, the origin of strategic inputs, the embodied energy in products, dependence on logistics routes, and exposure to sanctions, tariffs and export controls.

“Diversification is no longer just about export markets, but also suppliers, energy sources, logistics routes and critical inputs,” concludes Da Pozzo. Italian exports have proven their ability to maintain their value even during periods of severe instability. The challenge now is to transform this capacity to respond into an increasingly robust and sustainable competitive edge, whilst safeguarding profit margins, production continuity and market access, even when multiple risk factors are at play simultaneously.”