Non-EU exports grow but to the Gulf almost halved
On average +4.5% thanks to Switzerland and China, Opec area gives up 42.9%. Household and business confidence falls
by Luca Orlando
Exports to Opec countries almost halved. While exports to Switzerland nearly doubled and those to China grew by double digits. The balance of non-EU exports in April was positive, a growth of 4.5% within which the effects of the crisis in Iran are evident, albeit circumscribed.
In the absence of details on individual countries, it is the Opec area that in preliminary ISTAT statistics comes closest to the geographical perimeter of the Middle East, a territory to which sales fell by 43% in the month, a clear sign of the shock in shipments triggered at the end of February.
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As the days go by, the first official statistics begin to arrive, measuring the impact of the war unleashed at the end of February by the US and Israel against Iran. While this attack has caused an upward spike in energy prices, which has translated into an increase in industrial price lists (production prices between February and March rose by 4.4%, with the index reaching its highest level in three years), it has also wreaked havoc on international shipments, especially those bound for the Gulf area.
A number of companies, particularly those in the oil & gas sector, have reported the first incoming letters from customers in the Middle East, citing force majeure to delay shipments. These effects are limited for the time being, but will now have to be evaluated in terms of orders, another area in which the uncertainty generated by the blockade of Hormuz and possible new military attacks in the area may be discharged.
The collapse in sales to the Opec area certifies this scenario.
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