F1, new industry structures and the challenge of the advanced hybrid

The engine remains a hybrid type, but the electric component has greater weight, providing around 50 per cent of the power. A significant change concerns the petrol: no longer of fossil origin, but 100% from renewable sources. This is not yet marketable on a large scale, but essential to set the direction and compete on the market with the advance of electric vehicles. In order to maintain dominance in fuels and energy production, petrochemical companies thus confirm the use of Formula 1 as a technological platform for advanced development.

A technological centrality also in the sporting sphere quantified sharply by Mattia Binotto, who heads the Audi F1 project, at the microphones of the Terruzzi Racconta podcast: "Fuel has a direct impact on engine performance, the difference between a good quality fuel and a bad one can be worth 10 to 15 kilowatts, or about 15 horsepower. In terms of lap time, this can mean four tenths, even half a second,' which is precisely why the choice of suppliers of these new fuels becomes crucial for the racing teams.

With the increase of the power component, the FIA had to adapt the aerodynamics, favouring solutions that would allow the cars to have less drag. Unlike the old DRS (the movable rear wing activated for overtaking), which is now being retired, the new active aerodynamic system has an overall efficiency purpose. To facilitate overtaking, the real heir to DRS is the so-called 'Overtake Mode' (or Manual Override), which does not act on aerodynamics but provides a strategic boost of extra electrical power to the pursuing driver.

The architecture of the aerodynamic system is based on two main configurations: Cornering mode (or Z-Mode), which guarantees the high load essential for grip when cornering and braking, and Straight-line mode (or X-Mode), which can be activated on straights to move the flaps and reduce drag. The use of the latter by all cars is vital for energy management: without a drastic reduction in aerodynamic drag, in fact, the hybrid component would quickly run out of charge on every lap.

In order to balance the efficiency of electrical consumption with the strict safety requirements in the rain, where a low integral aerodynamic load would be dangerous, the Federation then introduced a third engineering option: Partial Active Aero. This configuration, specific for a wet track, foresees the exclusive opening of the front wing to preserve energy, while keeping the rear wing closed to ensure the necessary stability for the single-seater.

The pre-season tests were longer than usual precisely because of this radical change, with one week of testing at Montmeló (Barcelona) and two weeks of sessions in Bahrain. Given the need for highly innovative technological development, the racing teams adopted heterogeneous construction philosophies, often favouring reliability and correlation of on-track data with simulations over pure performance. It is therefore very complex to delineate the real values in the field.

However, the tests highlighted Aston Martin's difficulties, held back by numerous technical problems despite being credited as one of the possible championship contenders, strengthened also by the full-time entry of Adrian Newey. The real challenge for the British team remains the transition from a proven engine like Mercedes to the new Honda supply, with all the unknowns of adaptation that entails.

As always, special attention is paid to Ferrari. The signs emerging from the tests are encouraging, with Charles Leclerc setting the best overall time, confirming the good feeling around the Maranello team. Mercedes and Red Bull also look promising. According to what the Monegasque told Sky Sport F1, both teams seem to have hidden a lot of potential during the tests: "Red Bull seems to be in good shape, but Mercedes is also doing well. They are still hiding a lot. McLaren is the big question mark and the most difficult to assess."

One of the main themes that emerged during the pre-season tests concerned the Mercedes case, which ended up under investigation by the FIA for an alleged irregularity related to the compression ratio of the power unit. This parameter, which expresses the ratio between the total volume of the cylinder and the volume of the combustion chamber, was allegedly higher than the limit imposed by the technical regulations, resulting in greater thermodynamic efficiency and, consequently, an increase in performance in terms of power on track.

Toto Wolff comments: 'Our power unit is legal, it is in line with what is written in the regulations, with the controls and measures. The other teams get a move on'. Meanwhile, prompted by the rival teams, primarily Ferrari, the FIA has announced an adjustment to the regulations as of 1 June. In short, it promises to be a hard-fought world championship even off the track.

Faced with an engineering upheaval on such a scale, most teams preferred to protect themselves by ensuring stability on the human capital front. Unlike last season, 2026 does not present any substantial revolutions in the driver line-up. The most important change concerns the expansion of the grid: there will be 22 drivers at the start, compared to 20 last year, thanks to the entry of Cadillac. The new team has focused on experience and solidity, relying on two veterans like Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas. Another novelty at Red Bull, the team decided to promote Isack Hadjar alongside Max Verstappen, and consequently Racing Bulls chose to bet on rookie Arvid Lindblad.

The unprecedented technical framework and the new grid layouts present a profoundly different scenario from 2025, the year in which McLaren almost doubled its rivals in the constructors' standings. Today, the quota market acts as a real benchmark for estimating technological values on the track. Suspicions about the power unit lead bookmakers to price Mercedes as the clear favourite for the constructors' title (40%), an advantage that is reflected in the drivers' championship, where George Russell leads the odds at 30%.

Behind the house of Stuttgart, the numbers certify the uncertainty linked to technological innovations: the odds for the constructors' title see McLaren and Scuderia Ferrari paired at 25%. Particularly telling is the market's assessment of Red Bull: the team is suffering from the unknown linked to Hadjar's performance, stopping at 10% among the constructors. However, the "human capital" represented by four-time champion Max Verstappen keeps the Dutchman at 20% for the drivers' title, ahead of Charles Leclerc (15%) and reigning champion Lando Norris (10%).

In the second line, the odds take a snapshot of a generational shift: expectations on Antonelli's talent (10%) equal the chances of a possible redemption for Lewis Hamilton (10%), while the victory of the host of the opening race Oscar Piastri is currently considered unlikely (5%). The other seven teams currently have no realistic chance of competing for the world championship. These are, in any case, estimates that are bound to change enormously after the first qualifying, when the track will provide the first real feedback.