Istat

Falling birth rates: by 2050, there will be more childless couples than those with children

At national level, this shift will occur in 2047 and will be driven by a decline in the number of people of reproductive age and a delay in starting a family until later in life

by Pietro Menzani

31 August 2026

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Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

According to Istat estimates, by 2047 there will be more childless couples than those with at least one child. The former will increase by 8.8 per cent between 2025 and 2050, rising from 5.4 to 5.9 million, whilst the latter will see a decline of 22.3 per cent: from the current 7.5 million (28.1 per cent of the total) to 5.8 million in 2050, when they will account for just over one in five households (21.1 per cent).

Fewer couples with children

Over the next 25 years, there will be a sharp decline in both the number of couples with at least one child aged up to 19 – which will fall by over one million, representing an overall drop of 22 per cent – and those in which all children are aged 20 or over (-22.8 per cent).

The projected decline in population depends on a number of factors. First and foremost, it depends on projected fertility rates, but also on the reduction in the size of the cohorts of people of reproductive age, due to the low birth rates of the past and the tendency to start families at an increasingly later age.

The date identified by Istat for childless couples to become the majority – 2047 – refers to the entire peninsula, but there remain marked regional differences. In the North and Centre, this shift will occur earlier, in 2038 and 2044 respectively, whilst in the South it will not happen, despite a substantial narrowing of the gap.

The shift in the ratio between couples with and without children will, however, affect the whole country, albeit to varying degrees. By 2050, Southern Italia will still have the highest proportion of couples with children, but the decline will be drastic here too, with the figure falling from 31.2 per cent to 22.4 per cent. In the North, the figure will fall from 26.8 per cent to 21 per cent, and in the Centre from 26.2 per cent to 19.4 per cent.

Non-nuclear families

Between 2025 and 2050, however, the total number of households in Italia will increase by 3.5 per cent, rising from 26.7 million in 2025 to 27.9 million in 2043, before falling to 27.6 million in 2050. The decline expected towards the end of the period in question is attributable to the gradual decline in the proportion of the population made up of the baby boomers of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, who will progressively move into the older age groups of the population.

The increase in the number of households is driven primarily by those without a core family unit – that is, without a couple or parent-child relationship – which will rise from 10.7 million in 2025 to 12.3 million in 2050, representing a 15.8 per cent increase. Their share of the total will rise from an initial 40 per cent to 44.7 per cent. Households with at least one nuclear unit, on the other hand, will fall by 4.6 per cent, from 16 million in 2025 to 15.3 million.

The number of nuclear families will fall across the entire peninsula, but the decline will be more pronounced in the South, where the proportion will fall from 62.3 per cent in 2025 to 57.2 per cent in 2050, although the South will still have a higher proportion of nuclear families than the North (54.8 per cent) and the Centre (53.6 per cent).

The average size of Italian households will also fall, dropping from 2.20 members in 2025 to 1.98 in 2050, confirming the existence of a ‘trend towards smaller and more fragmented family structures’. In the North and Centre, the average number of household members will fall from 2.15 and 2.16, respectively, to just under two people per household. The decline will be most pronounced in Southern Italia, where the figure will drop from 2.29 to 2.00 members.

People who live alone

The overall increase in the number of households and the simultaneous reduction in their average size are explained by another figure that emerges from the Istat report: between 2025 and 2050, there will be a 16 per cent increase in the number of people living alone, rising from 10 million to 11.6 million. Their share of the total number of households will rise from 37.5 per cent to 42 per cent.

The rise in the number of people living alone will particularly affect women and older people. Whilst the number of single women is set to rise by more than 20 per cent over the period in question, from 5.3 to 6.3 million, the increase among men will be more modest, rising from 4.7 to 5.2 million (+11.3 per cent).

As regards age, however, the number of people aged over 65 living alone – which currently stands at 4.6 million out of a total of 10 million (46.3 per cent) – could rise to 6.6 million out of 11.6 million by 2050 (57 per cent).

Geographically, the largest increase will be seen in Southern Italia, where the proportion of people living alone will reach 39.6 per cent, representing a rise of 4.9 percentage points, compared with an increase of 4.1 points in the North (where the proportion will stand at 42.7 per cent in 2050) and 4.6 points in Central Italy (where the proportion will reach 43.8 per cent).

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