Fdi, the League and M5s: vote-grabbing among the poorer classes

An Italy split in two, furrowed by a sort of socio-economic divide that sees on the one hand Fdi, Lega and M5S racking up preferences among the poorer and less educated classes and on the other hand Pd, Azione and Italia Viva triumphing among the richer and better educated. If only the less affluent Italians voted today, in other words, Giorgia Meloni would have a supermajority under any electoral law.

The snapshot comes from the survey, which Il Sole 24 Ore is able to anticipate, carried out by Youtrend on a sample of 1,201 respondents representative of the population over 18 years of age living in Italy, divided into four socio-economic status brackets. Fdi comes in at 30% in the Youtrend/Agi Super Average (a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions), but rises to 31.1% in the lowest band and 31.9% in the medium-low band, rising to 28% in the medium-high band and falling again to 27.4% in the highest.

Inverse the trend of Elly Schlein's Pd (second party quoted at 22.2%), which starts from 12.1%, rises to 24.4% and then reaches 26.4% in the upper-middle class and even touches the peak of 27.4% in the upper class. The Dems thus hold the record among parties as 'penetration' among citizens with the highest socio-economic status, who however also look to Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (2.3% in the Super Average, but 5.4% in the highest bracket according to socio-economic status) and Carlo Calenda's Azione (Super Average 3.2%, but 5.6% among the richest).

They do much better, as appeal to the most vulnerable Italians, the M5S of Giuseppe Conte (Super average 12.3%, but at 18.6% among the poorest) and the League of Matteo Salvini (at 8.2%, but at 14.5% in the lowest bracket). The Five Stars have another 12% of potential voters among those with lower-middle status against 6.7% for the Carroccio. Both see their support dwindle as income increases: the potential voters of the M5S drop to 7.5 per cent in the highest bracket, those of the League drop dramatically to 3.1 per cent.

It is significant, on the other hand, that the Green Left Alliance of Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni (6.4% in the Super Average) touches its peak in the medium-high bracket (9.3%) and reaches 7% in the high bracket, dropping instead to 3.9% among the less affluent and 5.9% in the medium-low group. In short, in the wide field, probably thanks to the roots in the South and the echo of the citizenship income, it is mainly the Pentastellata siren that attracts the vote of the most distressed citizens.