Ferrari swerves after Morgan Stanley's rating cut and disappointment in F1

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Ferrari is skidding at Piazza Affari, suffering from Morgan Stanley's critical report, titled 'Pit Stop', and disappointment over the Formula 1 sporting performance. The American investment bank decided to regrade its rating on Ferrari to 'Equal-weight' from 'Overweight' and its price target to $425 from $520. This was also due to a different methodology for calculating the value of the stock. In any case, Morgan Stanley revised the rating after lowering growth estimates to reflect the company's decision to limit production until 2030 in order to preserve brand exclusivity. This move is certainly a good one from a long-term perspective, but in the immediate term it is quite obvious that it will weigh on growth prospects.

In detail, theaverage annual volume growth is expected to be around 1.5% until 2030 against +6% in the period 2012-2022. Thus, the average annual revenue growth rate should also stop at around 5%, which is below the consensus. For the investment bank +5% revenue growth for the next three quarters. The US bank also wonders about the impact of the launch of the electric model, which is planned for 2026 and which many customers loyal to the brand view with scepticism. Morgan Stanley, however, reassures by drawing a parallel with Rolex, which in 1977 did not hesitate to produce quartz watches, even though its core business is precision mechanics. 'Just as Rolex has managed to maintain the value and desirability of its brand by making quartz "on its own terms" (low volumes, premium positioning, in-house movement), Ferrari could similarly use its electric vehicle to demonstrate its technical sophistication and broaden its appeal, without compromising the fundamental tradition of the combustion engine that defines the brand,' the US bank's analysts reasoned.

Meanwhile, the house of Maranello archives a 2025 to forget on the Formula 1 front, with the championship closing with Lando Norris and his Mclaren in first place. Instead, the Rossa was left high and dry this year with zero wins and only seven podiums. The result was that it finished fourth, a good 435 points behind Mclaren. So much so that Charles Leclerc admitted on live TV: "it hurts a lot". And meanwhile, doubts are mounting as to whether the driver will remain with the Maranello team next year. Some claim he is winking at Aston Martin. There also remains the rebus over Lewis Hamilton, after his disastrous season. The seven-time world champion, apart from the victory in China at the start of the championship, has never been on the podium. On the eve, meanwhile, he commented: 'I have nothing to say about this season, let's just get on with it. This winter I will not talk to anyone, I will disconnect and throw my mobile phone in the bin'.