Ferrari in pole position at Piazza Affari, positive indications for second quarter

Emerging from a conference call ahead of accounts at the end of July

 (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Ferrari in evidence at Piazza Affari, the stock is among the best on the list on a positive day for the auto sector. The company held a pre-conference call to take stock of business performance, ahead of the release of the second quarter numbers and the related conference call scheduled for 31 July. From the meeting, as analysts report, it emerged that the positive trend of the first quarter has continued into the second quarter, thanks in part to a favourable product mix, albeit with a smaller contribution from the Daytona model (it will go into phase-out in the third quarter) and thanks to other high-end models and a lower incidence of models such as the Roma and 296 GTB.

Thus in the second quarter revenues and margins are expected to grow year-on-year, with margins in line with those of the first quarter. Volumes are seen growing, but 'very low single digit', i.e. by a little. Industrial free cash flow is still expected to be strong, albeit with lower growth than in Q1, which benefited more from advances on the F80 model. Research and development costs are expected to rise, while depreciation and amortisation costs are seen as stable. The company's top management confirmed that the first half of the year will be stronger than the second, with the mix effect becoming more challenging ahead of the launch of new models during the second quarter, starting with the electric model to be unveiled at Capital Market Day in October and two new models on which no details were given. As for tariffs, the company indicated that there was no impact in the second quarter. It did, however, confirm price increases on some models to offset the effect. In any case, we will have to wait until the third quarter to understand the situation.

"The indications are on the whole positive because they could show a second quarter slightly better than our expectations and also than the consensus, increasing visibility on the achievement of our estimates for 2025, which already incorporate a slowdown in growth in the second half of the year," commented Intermonte's experts, who indicated that they expect second quarter revenues at €1,837m (+7% year-on-year), adjusted ebitda at €708m (+6%), ebit at €547m (+7%) and finally net profit at €419m. Intermonte's recommendation on Ferrari is 'Outperform' with a price target of €482.

More cautious are the analysts of Equita, who in the light of the indications released by the company have confirmed their recommendation of 'Hold' with a price target much lower than the stock price of EUR 380. "We believe there may be a minimal upside in 2025 due to the release of F1 provisions, we assume 10-20 million given that they are typically budgeted at the beginning of the year as if F1 win prizes are to be paid," they concluded. Jefferies also recommends caution on Ferrari ('Hold' with a price target of 420 euros), although they take into account that 'another reassuring quarter' is on the way, at least that is what the house and also the market expect. According to Jefferies experts, the second-quarter numbers and the anticipation of Ferrari's Capital Market Day scheduled for 8 and 9 October would certainly have boosted the shares, which are also considered a safe haven against market bad weather, had it not been for the fact that in the meantime, to shake things up, it has emerged that Ferrari is preparing to postpone the launch of its second electric model, originally planned for the end of 2026. A move that could ultimately cause concern.