Sustainability

Fertiliser crisis, Africa and Asia go hungry

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has consequences that are serious for the fertiliser trade and the lives of millions of people

by Elena Comelli

7 May 2026

Insicurezza alimentare. Profughi del Sudan in un campo nell’est del Ciad. (AP Photo/Jsarh Ngarndey Ulrish)

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Dependence on fossil fuels
The role of the Gulf monarchies
The case of ammonia
Who pays the highest price?

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Those most affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not be air transporters, left without paraffin, or motorists without petrol, but farmers without fertiliser.

So much so that the UN has predicted 45 million more people will go hungry (two-thirds of them in Africa) if the blockade continues through the first half of the year. This will bring the number of people experiencing severe food insecurity in 2026 to 363 million.

Dependence on fossil fuels

Modern agriculture, in fact, is completely dependent on fossil sources, the source of three basic nutrients: nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium. Nitrogenous fertilisers, such as ammonia and urea, are produced from natural gas. Phosphorous, in turn, is derived from sulphur, a by-product of oil and gas refining. Fifty per cent of the world's maritime sulphur trade transits through Hormuz and according to the Commodities Research Unit, a commodities consultancy, 43% of the global urea trade is also at risk due to the blockade of the strait.

India, which imports 80% of its ammonia and 40% of its urea from the Gulf countries, could be the first to suffer. With only two months to go before rice sowing begins, panic is already spreading among Punjab farmers. The Australians will sow soon afterwards. There, prices of urea from the Gulf have risen by more than 50 per cent in recent weeks. But in the United States and Brazil, too, the blockade is beginning to make itself felt, if only because of the stratospheric rise in prices. In Europe, at least one fertiliser plant in Slovakia has already stopped production due to a shortage of raw material. And other closures will follow.

The Role of the Gulf Monarchies

Before the 1950s, farmers relied on organic inputs of manure and compost to keep the soil fertile, but with the arrival of the Green Revolution, they switched to industrial fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based products such as urea and ammonium nitrate. This has led to an increasing link between world food production and the supply of hydrocarbons. Hence the increasingly central role of Gulf monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, in the global food economy: the Gulf States directly influence food production and circulation, providing key chemical inputs, exporting large volumes of finished fertilisers and controlling the logistical corridors through which food and agricultural products move.

The case of ammonia

A key example is ammonia, the starting point for all mineral nitrogen fertilisers. Saudi Arabia is the world's second largest exporter of ammonia, while Oman ranked sixth in 2024. The Gulf's ammonia exports are particularly important for markets outside North America and Western Europe. In 2024, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar together supplied more than three-quarters of India's ammonia and 30% of Morocco's. As a result, food production in South Asia and North Africa has become heavily dependent on nitrogen flows from the Gulf. Much of the ammonia produced in the Gulf is converted into urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser in the world. Gulf countries control 35% of the global urea trade: in 2024, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest urea exporter, while Oman ranked third.

Sulphur is another key element, which is used to produce the sulphuric acid needed to turn phosphate rock into fertiliser. About half of the sulphur transported by sea globally transits through the Strait of Hormuz and most of this is produced by the state-owned energy companies in the Gulf, mainly Adnoc, QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Saudi Aramco. Morocco, home to the world's largest phosphate industry, is the largest importer of sulphur globally, with about three quarters of its 2024 imports coming from the Gulf.

Who pays the highest price?

The spill-over effects will be concentrated mainly in Africa and Asia. Among the most vulnerable countries, Sudan imports more than half of its fertiliser from the Gulf, followed by Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Somalia and Mozambique. Sudan is the most serious case: after three years of civil war, the country is already facing severe famine, with over 40% of the population, 19 million people, suffering. According to a UNHCR report published in February, almost one in three people in Sudan is displaced, making the country 'the worst humanitarian crisis in the world'.

@elencomelli