Fight against evasion, IRS sets 2026 target at 14.5 billion

The Revenue Agency's fight against evasion puts 14.5 billion in its sights for 2026 from prevention and control activities. It will then rise to 14.7 billion in 2027 and 14.9 billion in 2028. To this must then be added the incoming contribution from the Agenzia Entrate Riscossione (Ader) with 14.3 billion for this year, almost 15 for next year, and 12.5 billion for 2028 (see 'Il Sole 24 Ore' of 28 May). A contribution that could bring the forecast (which in recent years has always been improved by the final figure) of the total bill for this year close to the 29 billion mark. While for services to taxpayers, a downward curve in waiting times for VAT refunds is looming, rising from 70 days in 2026 to 64 in 2028. The numbers are contained in the new three-year agreement between the Ministry of the Economy and the Revenue Agency, which will be on the agenda for discussion with the trade unions currently scheduled for 16 June.

Objectives that are the direct consequence of what has already been indicated in the Piao (integrated plan of activities and organisation) and that, as already anticipated in this newspaper, aim in any case at an increase in the number and quality of controls. An additional boost will come from the use of new technologies and the influx of new databases: one of the main examples is the combination of POS and telematic registers for receipts, which is already producing an estimated emersion effect of 5.3 billion in the first five months of the year. For those who love big figures, by lining up all the various forms of control (from formal to substantial ones, from subjects subjected to joint analysis with the Guardia di Finanza to brief accesses) the Revenue Agency aims to reach and exceed 1.2 million by the end of the year. But the most important aspects go beyond the absolute value. On the one hand, because the positivity rate for formal inspections is expected to be 90% and for ordinary inspections (for direct taxes, VAT, and IRAP) 93%, meaning that they must be targeted objectives with a preventive capacity to identify positions at risk of irregularity. On the other hand, because preventive work lies precisely in assessing the risk of non-compliance and monitoring high tax risk subjects using the leverage of databases and technology. Artificial intelligence' will also provide support in the analysis of data, but as already indicated in the guidelines issued by Director Vincenzo Carbone last October, all processes revolve around the human centrality of the Agency's officials and no assessment or control will ever depend on a machine. In the list of control objectives, mention should also be made of the great attention paid to the phenomenon of open-and-close VAT accounts (9,000 in 2026, 9,500 in 2027 and 10,000 in 2028) and the front of irregularities on real estate, with a total of 190,000 letters over the entire three-year period between reports for properties that have not been updated in the Land Registry and those addressed to those who should have updated the values after interventions with building bonuses (Superbonus, energy saving or renovation).

Then there remains the strong investment in prevention. Under this heading fall, inter alia, the compliance letters (the target is 7.2 million summing up the entire three-year term of the agreement) with a commitment to a further reduction in 'false positives' intended to be less than or equal to 3% for 2026 and 2027 and less than or equal to 2% for 2028. It is also to evaluate the output of the effort in this regard. For this, data analysis tools will also be used to verify the effectiveness of the sending of alerts as well as of all actions to promote compliance with a monitoring of revenue.

It is not enough just to improve control capacity. For instance, the aim is to shorten the recovery chain with a specific target on entrusting debts to the collection agent within 120 days from the finality of the assessment and control measure as regards enforceable notices: the target is to reach 87 per cent in 2026 and then 90 per cent in both 2027 and 2028. While with regard specifically to the plan concerning the Agenzia delle Entrate Riscossione (Annex 4 of the agreement), an operational model is outlined that revolves around cross-cutting activities, significant arrears and targeted campaigns. In this case too, help may come from the information assets, which will be further enriched with the electronic invoice data provided by the Revenue Agency as envisaged by the last manoeuvre for analyses aimed at initiating enforcement proceedings against third parties. Just to mention the numbers at stake for 2026, 1.6 million procedures are expected to be activated between precautionary procedures such as administrative seizures and mortgages (53%) and executive procedures such as foreclosures (47%). While the volume of documents (payment notices, summonses and reminders) estimated for the current year is between 24 and 31 million.