Flows, 90,000 migrants per year needed: half required from agriculture and construction

The number of non-EU workers that Italian companies would be inclined to hire through the Flussi decree would range between 60,000 and 93,000 per year, peaking in the event of widespread difficulties in finding them. The calculation comes from the elaborations of the Excelsior information system, obtained through the data from monthly surveys integrated with econometric modelling on the number of contracts activated in 2024 and contained in Annex 1 to the illustrative report accompanying the new Dpcm relating to the entries in the three-year period 2026-2028, approved by the Council of Ministers on Monday (see Il Sole 24 Ore yesterday).

The information acquired concerns the contractual activation forecasts of companies with employees in the industrial and services sectors, experimentally extended to companies in the primary sector with at least one employee. An exercise that makes it possible to extend Excelsior's field of observation to approximately 14.6 million employed persons, 1.9 million of whom are foreign citizens. Of these, 1.4 million are contracts activated for non-EU workers, of whom about 105,000 were not present in Italy.

A sectoral examination of the data on the propensity of companies to hire non-EU workers through the Flussi Decree reveals a potential need for 59,260 people per year, which can rise to 93,160. More than half, in both hypotheses, would only be needed in two sectors: agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing on the one hand; construction on the other. If tourism and operational business and personal support services are added, this covers 80 per cent of the demand.

But what numbers emerge from the 2025 click days? It is again the report that provides answers. As of 18 June, for seasonal work, 72,238 applications had been sent against 110,000 quotas, a drastic drop compared to the 283,000 requests of 2023 and the 337,000 of 2024. A drop that the executive ascribes to the anti-fraud and abuse measures provided for in Decree Law 145/2024, following the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's complaint to the National Anti-Mafia Prosecutor's Office. This is why he considers this year's data 'more reliable'. With one regret: 'The insufficient contribution in the use of available quotas by employers' organisations, especially in the tourist-hotel sector,' it says, 'is a cause for concern. The government is convinced that the empowerment of employers' organisations continues to be fundamental to ensure that the match between labour demand in Italy and supply from abroad is genuine and useful'.

For non-seasonal and self-employed work, 113,534 applications were submitted up to 18 June, against 70,720 authorised entries. For those relating to family and sociomedical assistance alone, the applications are almost five times the quotas. The picture is reversed, however, if we look at the 10,000 over-quota entries granted on an experimental basis for assistance to the disabled and the elderly: the applications for work permits are for now only 13% of the maximum number allowed, even though the faculty to apply is open until the end of the year. However, the window will be re-proposed, eliminating the 10,000 ceiling but 'maintaining strict compliance with entry requirements'.