Electoral flows: why M5S helped the centre-right win in Venice
The research institute analysed the electoral flows in Venice, among the main cities that went to the vote. In the M5s base, the percentage of those who chose the centre-right candidate (outgoing councillor of the Brugnaro junta) was 50%: only 24% chose Martella. The remaining percentages were divided between abstainers and other candidates
Key points
Half of the voters of the 5 Star Movement in the 2024 European elections voted in Venice for the centre-right candidate Simone Venturini. A decisive choice for victory in the first round, since he narrowly exceeded the threshold of an absolute majority of valid votes in the administrative elections. This is the figure that emerges from Youtrend's calculations. Confirming the fact that when the progressive camp drops a Dem candidate, a large segment of the M5s electorate does not vote for him. Venturini also convinced more abstainers from the Europeans (21%) than Martella (5%).
Youtrend, M5s votes decisive for Venturini's victory
The research institute analysed electoral flows in Venice, among the main provincial capitals that went to the vote. Among those who voted FdI in the last European elections, 86% voted for Venturini and 6% for Martella (a Pd exponent and mayoral candidate of the centre-left); among those who gave their preference to the League in 2024, 82% voted Venturini and 7% Martella; among those who voted FI in the European elections, 70% voted for the mayor elected in the first round and 10% for his centre-left opponent. The remaining percentages are divided between abstainers and other candidates. In the progressive area, again according to the comparison with the European elections, among the PD voters only 3% (like Avs) voted for Venturini and 93% for Martella. In the M5s base, the percentage of those who chose Venturini was instead 50%: only 24% chose Martella. Again, the remaining percentages are divided between abstainers and other candidates.
Voting results
Venturini, an outgoing councillor in Luigi Brugnaro's junta, a Catholic extraction and 'civic' profile, who made his debut in politics at a very young age with the Udc, obtained 51% of the consensus (equal to 56,344 votes) over his centre-right rival Andrea Martella (39.2%). There is no doubt about the candidate's personal appeal. It is no coincidence that his 'yellow' list - into which many of the former outgoing councillors have converged - has become the first city and coalition party, with over 30% of the consensus. In other words, much more than the three main centre-right parties added together (Fdi 12.9%, Lega 4.7% and Forza Italia 2.5%). But according to Youtrend's calculations, it was the 'betrayal' of half of the M5s voters at the Europeans (who collected 6,482 votes, equal to 7.2%) who voted for him instead of for the candidate of the progressive camp, that gave him victory in the first round. Denying the predictions made on the eve of the election that gave the centre-left an advantage
The choice of continuity
From the first exit polls and then with the projections that followed in the afternoon, it became clear what the polls had missed. Despite the surveys, despite the discontent against the mayor-entrepreneur administration, the city preferred continuity. Venturini expressed 'great respect' for the loser, and said he was 'convinced that he can be useful to the city in his role as senator, at least to carry the flag for Venice in the national parliament'
