Forecasts

IMF: global growth resilient (for now) to tensions and tariffs. Artificial intelligence uncertain

World GDP will rise by 3.3% in 2026. Italy at +0.7%. AI between bubble risk and boost to the economy. US growth solid, but American households fear inflation. Fund reaffirms centrality of central banks' independence

by Gianluca Di Donfrancesco

19 January 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Global growth stabilises, albeit at a historically low level, and shows resilience in the face of the multiplication of crisis fronts generated by a year of the Trump presidency. As tensions accelerate (e.g. in Venezuela, Iran and Greenland), turning forecasts into bets, the International Monetary Fund puts global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, compared to the 3.3% estimated for 2025. In the January update of the World Economic Outlook, published on Monday 19, Italy is forecast to grow by 0.7% this year and next, up from 0.5% in 2025. And in the midst of the clash between Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the IMF reiterates the centrality of central bank independence.

The double face of AI

A key factor in the resilience of the global economy is the continued increase in investment in information technology and especially artificial intelligence, which has risen to its highest level since 2001. The surge is concentrated in the US, but is driving Asian technology exports.

And here the IMF draws a double scenario for the future. If the bet on AI pays off, i.e. if "faster adoption of artificial intelligence results in strong productivity gains and greater business dynamism", there will be a further boost to global growth of up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and between 0.1 and 0.8 points per year in the medium term, depending on the speed of adoption.

If, on the other hand, artificial intelligence turns out to be a bubble, the consequences will be the opposite. "If expectations of AI-driven productivity gains prove overly optimistic," the Fund writes, "and if the results disappoint, there could be a sharp drop in investment in advanced technology and in spending on AI adoption in other sectors, with a more prolonged correction in stock market valuations, which are increasingly supported by only a few companies. The decline would affect other sectors, with 'erosion of household wealth', which in the US has much of its savings invested in equities.

Not only that. "Spillovers would spread through trade flows to economies that export technology products and radiate to the rest of the world through tightening global financial conditions." The impact on growth, says the IMF, would be "highly uncertain". As a reference, under a moderate downside scenario for AI equities, 'global growth loses 0.4 per cent in 2026', compared to the estimated 3.3 per cent.

Tariffs war

Then there is the chapter on tariffs. The IMF report cannot take Donald Trump's new threats into account, but nevertheless points to the escalation of the trade confrontation as one of the main risk factors. The chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, reiterated at a press conference that 'in a trade war there are no winners, tariffs will hit both those who impose them and others'.

The year-end US snapshot

Investment in AI gave a strong boost to the US economy in 2025, when growth was 2.1 %. The Fund expects an acceleration to 2.4 % in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and falling rates, while the drag from tariffs is expected to gradually diminish. There is an upward revision of 0.3% from the October forecast, reflecting the carry-over effect of higher growth in the third quarter of last year. The IMF expects a 'solid' pace at 2% in 2027.

The high cost of living continues to worry households, who expect high inflation again this year. The divergence between the US and most other countries persists: with the gradual shift of tariffs on consumer prices, core inflation is expected to return to the 2% target during 2027.

Eurozone still at a slow pace

Growth will remain stable at 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, from 1.4% in 2025. Between this year and next, the effects of increases in public spending in Germany will be felt. The German economy has avoided contraction by a whisker in 2025, with growth of 0.2 per cent, which is expected to rise to 1.1 per cent in 2025 and 1.5 per cent the following year, according to Fund forecasts.

Italy goes from 0.5% in 2o25 to 0.7% in 2026. France is doing better, despite the never-ending political crisis: in 2026 it should still achieve 1% growth, after 0.8% in 2025. Still robust, though slowing, is the growth of Spain, which is expected to rise from 2.9% last year to 2.3% in 2026. Brilliant results are expected for Poland, which is expected to accelerate to 3.5% this year from 3.3% in 2025.

Stable pace for the United Kingdom, which grew just under 1.5%. Expected growth for Russia remains below 1%.

China slows, India runs

In 2025, China crossed the 5% GDP growth target, but will not be able to repeat it this year (4.5%), let alone in 2027 (4%).

Opposite is the trajectory of India, which accelerated to 7.3% in 2025 from 6.5% in 2024. Growth of 6.4% is forecast for 2026.

Back below 1% growth in Japan.

Gianluca Di Donfrancescoredattore
- LinkedIn
- Email
Luogo: Milano
Lingue parlate: Inglese
Argomenti: Germania, Fmi, Banca mondiale, economia e commercio internazionale, cambiamento climatico, e transizione verde
Scheda autore
Trust project