Food Industry Monitor: revenue race slows down. Better results for family businesses

Growth is still forecast for the Italian agro-food industry, but the trend is showing signs of slowing down. The positive trend in employment should support demand, but it is not easy to compensate for the drop in household purchasing power, compounded by the climate of international uncertainty.

This is the scenario outlined by the 11th Food Industry Monitor drawn up by the University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo and Ceresio Investors: if in 2024 the revenues of the 870 companies in the sample monitored grew by 5.9%, in 2025 growth should stop at 4.6% and in 2026 at 4.4% (also due to lower inflation). Same trend also for exports, which is expected - while waiting to see whether Trump's tariffs will stop the bar at a relatively sustainable 10% - to still expand, albeit at a lower pace: +7.3% in 2025 and +7% in 2026.

The sector continues to record, say Pollenzo, "good levels of commercial profitability with a Ros at 5.7% (Return on sales, i.e. the ratio between operating result and turnover, ed.) and a Roic (profitability of in relation to invested capital, ed.) at 6.9%". Positive values, but also in this case slightly lower than in previous years, and also affected by the strong promotional pressure practised by the large-scale retail trade to support sales volumes. Financial solidity nevertheless remains high "with a debt ratio of 1.19 (third party means over own)".

"The outlook for 2025 is positive, but it will certainly have to be revised downwards if tariffs are activated and if the evolution of the war in the Middle East leads to a significant drop in oil production and tourist flows," comments Carmine Garzia, professor of Management and scientific head of the Observatory. The introduction of tariffs could lead to a drastic reduction in exports. We have to consider that only some Italian players have production facilities in the US and could therefore preserve their market shares, but this is not an option within the reach of all companies'.

"We need to think seriously about the opportunity for Italian companies to give a strong acceleration to their internationalisation strategies," adds Alessandro Santini, head of corporate & investment banking at Ceresio Investors, "by investing directly in the markets in production facilities. We must not only see 'Made in Italy' as a model based on the export of finished products, but also as the export of innovation and production know-how, which can be put to use directly in the target markets'.