The challenges of sustainability

Sustainable development

For renewables the 2030 target is far away

In 2024, Italy recorded the strongest growth in the last decade, covering 41.2 % of requirements. But to meet the 2030 targets, a number of critical issues will have to be overcome. Three ways to push investments

by Alessandro Marangoni

30 September 2025

3' min read

Key points

Critical issues
Targets
The solutions

3' min read

The energy sector is continuing its transformation path, both in Italy and in Europe, driven by decarbonisation policies, technological progress and falling costs. In the electricity sector, renewables are growing worldwide, with an increase in 2024 of 700 GW, about 3.5 times that of 2019 (source Iea) and 100 times that of Italy.

Italy saw the strongest growth in renewables in the last decade in 2024, with 7.5 GW of new power (+29% compared to 2023), bringing the total to 76.6 GW. Photovoltaics added 6.7 GW, wind power only 685 MW. Renewables covered 41.2% of electricity requirements, recording the highest share ever achieved in Italy.

Everything OK, then? Not quite. Looking ahead, the picture looks less rosy. In the first eight months of 2025, only 4 GW were installed, of which 3.7 GW were photovoltaic, compared to 4.8 in the same period in 2024 (source: Terna). One reason may be the wait for the auctions of the transitional FerX Decree. The results of the former, however, are below expectations. The applications are 11.8 GW compared to the 20.4 submitted in the first phase. While the bids for photovoltaics are above the quota (10.1 GW compared to 8), those for wind power remained below, with 1.7 GW compared to the 2.5 available. However, there is no shortage of projects: in 2024 alone, there are 39.1 GW for PV (of which 22.7 GW for agriwind) and 19.1 GW for onshore wind according to Althesys' Irex.

The critical issues

What are the reasons? Although authorisation procedures have improved, several critical issues remain. While progress has been made on simplifications, key issues such as eligible areas are still open. Moreover, the auction bases seem insufficient compared to current costs, especially for wind power. An Althesys study shows, in fact, that the operating prices of the transitional Fer X Decree are inadequate, as the outcomes for wind power in the auction show. The absence of quotas for agri-voltaics, moreover, may have held back the potential for solar.

I target

Pniec's 2030 target is 63.4 per cent renewables over gross inland consumption with a capacity of 131 GW. Of these, 79.2 GW of PV compared to 40.7 GW installed in August 2025 and 26.1 of onshore wind compared to 13.3 GW in August. To reach the 2030 target for PV would require an average installation of about 7.5 GW per year, i.e., repeating the 2024 result for the next five years. For wind power, an average of 3 GW per year would need to be realised, a figure that has never been achieved so far.

All this is set against a backdrop of weak demand and an electrification process - crucial for decarbonisation - that is struggling to take hold and has been hovering around 22% for years. Forecasts of a robust increase in demand (from 312 TWh in 2024 to 400-430 in 2040 in the Terna-Snam scenarios) have so far never materialised. Over the years, the various factors assumed for growth (heat pumps, electric mobility, hydrogen) have turned out to be largely overestimated. The doubt arises that history may now repeat itself with data centres. Slow penetration of new technologies, energy efficiency and deindustrialisation are among the reasons.

Today, the strong, albeit insufficient, growth of renewables combined with stagnating demand is already depressing prices at certain times of the day, putting investments at risk. The crisis in the Spanish market, where renewables developed much earlier and much more than in Italy, is clear proof of this.

How to get out of it without compromising both decarbonisation and economic and financial sustainability? A sure and certain recipe does not exist, but some elements are clear.

The solutions

First of all, support mechanisms must provide a stable, medium-term perspective. Their costs are often overestimated, especially in a system based on contracts for difference in a framework of high prices. Arera, for example, predicts that the RES X and RES 2 decrees will demand between EUR 8.5 and 9.5 billion per year until 2031, while a study by Althesys estimates an average cost of up to EUR 4.8 billion for a renewable share between 60 and 65 per cent.

Secondly, action must be taken on the governance system: simplifications are fundamental but not enough: too many decision-making levels and interlocutors can stop authorisations. The case of suitable areas is emblematic.

Thirdly, in addition to unlocking new investments, we must encourage the upgrading of existing ones: renewing hydroelectric concessions and supporting the repowering of obsolete plants. Finally, coordinate the development of grids and storage with the growth of renewables. The Macse goes in this direction while work still needs to be done on distribution networks. In short, a set of concrete actions to be implemented immediately to achieve a sustainable and realistic energy transition.