Fossil fuels, investments down for the first time since Covid
Tight focus on oil, especially shale oil in the US and the refining sector. In coal on the other hand, spending is growing, driven almost exclusively by the energy hunger of China and India. It is no coincidence that Beijing is also far ahead in the development of clean energy
3' min read
3' min read
Clean energies already attract twice as much investment as fossil fuels. But the real news for 2025 is that the latter - for the first time since the Covid period - are expected to decline: a 2% contraction at global level (to around USD 1,100 billion) due in particular to oil and more generally to the closing of the purse strings in industrialised countries, a phenomenon in turn linked to decarbonisation but also today to uncertain economic scenarios.
The result is that 'fossil fuels' are increasingly becoming the preserve of Asia: China and India in the first place when it comes to coal, and especially the Middle East for the development of oil activities.
The latter at the global level register a definite setback, with investments set to fall by at least 6% this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA): excluding the 2020 pandemic, it would be the sharpest contraction since 2016, when the price of a barrel plummeted below $30.
If one considers that costs are rising compared to 2024, then the contraction is even more significant, due to the impact it may have on future oil supply: with the same expenditure, simply put, one can make less than in the past. Moreover, the IEA warns that its projections, based on the plans announced by the companies, could be revised downwards: Brent, which trades at around 65 dollars, has already lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year, but between the tariffs war and Opec policies, it is possible that the decline will continue.
"The fast-changing economic and trade scenario means that some investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to approving new projects," notes IEA Director Fatih Birol, who is convinced that energy security is a "key factor" in setting priorities at this time of uncertainty.
