France: why the vote complicates the creation of a government

The first challenge has been met. The illiberal democracy of the Rassemblement national, which already promised to erode the institutions of the République and their role, has been stopped, for now. The party obtained 11 million votes in the first round, and is the first single political force, but it stopped at 143 deputies, together with its allies, Ciotti's Républicains, who have in fact left the party. It is certainly not a definitive defeat - 'Victory is only postponed', warned Marine Le Pen - but at the moment the problem has been overcome.

The second challenge remains, that of creating not simply a 'republican camp', but a government that is supported by that political area. In essence, it is a matter of isolating the radical democracy of Mélenchon's France Insoumise. This objective has now become more difficult. Because, surprisingly, the Nouveau Front Populaire has not remained the second party, but has even become the first, and from the outset, albeit in the enthusiasm of victory, has claimed the right to form a government. The first to do so, not surprisingly - given his political prowess - was Mélenchon himself, who does not want to remain isolated but, at the same time, does not want to make too many compromises on his programme.

The first exploratory steps to create a new coalition have already been taken, within minutes of the vote result. Edouard Philippe, former prime minister, leader of Horizons and ally - today a little less aligned than a few weeks ago - of Emmanuel Macron, has already said that 'the central political forces must, without compromise, make an agreement to stabilise politics, but without France Insoumise and without Rn'. Such an agreement, Philippe added, 'will not be lasting, but it will allow France to be better managed'.

Even in the closest Macronian entourage, it is made clear that compromises with 'anti-Semitism, communitarianism and anti-parliamentarism' are not possible: this is the identikit of France Imsoumise or, at least, of several of its representatives. Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said that the presidential camp will present 'preconditions' with a view to a majority excluding 'Jean Luc Mélenchon and some of his allies'. From the right, Laurent Wauquiez, of the Républicains, however, said there would be 'neither compromise nor coalition'.

Overcoming this challenge has become more difficult for several reasons. For the left-wing parties, breaking an alliance - albeit very much like an electoral cartel, created in a few days - that came in first place is not very easy. Even if the tensions between Lfi and the other parties - which prevented, for example, a united list at the European elections - have been 'hidden' in view of difficult elections. It is true that Lfi has lost weight within the coalition with its 77 deputies, compared to the 183 of the entire Nfp (to which some left-wing independents must be added), while the socialist party has increased them, but Mélenchon remains the relative majority shareholder, so to speak, of the French left.
In a coalition, a left without Mélenchon would weigh less than Ensemble, but this does not mean that the Macronians should not make important concessions to form an alliance, even a temporary one. On the contrary: the price of a split, for these parties, would otherwise be to have an Lfi in opposition, ready to denounce their 'betrayal' and their 'yielding' to Macronism. Too high a political cost.