Elections in France, working on an anti-Rn 'Republican Front' - Podcast / Suspended between Le Pen and Mélenchon

Seventy-five deputies have already been elected in the first round: 38 for the Rassemblement National (of which one for the extreme right-wing Union), 32 for the Nouveau Front Populaire (of which nine in Paris), two for Ensemble, one for the Républicains and two for various right-wing lists. In constituencies with more than two candidates in the second round, Rn came in the lead in 134 cases, the allies in 27 cases. In 90 constituencies the left is third and could drop out in favour of Ensemble in 63 cases, or the Républicains in 14 cases. Ensemble, which does not intend to reward the candidates of La France Insoumise, is third in 62 cases.

Participation was significantly higher than in 2022: 66.7%, the highest since 1997, compared to 47.5% in the 2022 legislative elections, and 51.5% in the recent European elections. More than twenty percentage points higher, making all the polls - and even more so the polling projections - particularly fragile.

Immediate reactions from politicians. "Democracy has spoken," said Marine Le Pen, elected in the first round in the Pas-de-Calais with 58% of the vote. It was, she said, "an unambiguous vote" that "testifies to their willingness to turn pages after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power". "Nothing has been achieved yet and the second round will be decisive," he added: it is necessary to give "an absolute majority to Jordan Bardella ". Even if the hypothesis of a government with only a relative majority is beginning to make headway in the Rn ranks. The non-candidate prime minister spoke of a 'verdict without appeal'.

Macron, on the other hand, sent a message to the media: 'In the face of the Rassemblement national, it is time for a clearly democratic and republican large aggregation for the second round'. The large turnout, for the president, shows the will of the French people to 'make the political situation clear': 'Their democratic choice commits us,' he added.
The prime minister, Gabriel Attal - in the lead at the open count in Hauts-de-Seine ahead of an Nfp candidate - invited the candidates who came third and were admitted to the run-off to withdraw if it would be useful to avoid the election of an Rn candidate, in favour of 'those with whom we share the values of the Republic'.
His ally Edouard Philippe, of Horizons, not a candidate, made the same call but was more explicit: the victory of a candidate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise must be avoided. The Républicains, on the other hand, refused.

Macron's appeal also seems to have been taken up by the left. Even Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party - elected in the first round in Seine-et-Marne with 53% of the vote - and Jean-Luc Mélenchon - who also welcomed the defeat of the presidential camp - will withdraw their candidates if their participation would benefit Rn.
For the former president François Hollande , a Socialist - first with 36.7% in Corrèze, in a difficult constituency where three candidates qualified, including an Rn and a Républicain - "we have an absolute duty to ensure that the extreme right does not have a majority in the Assemblée".

Marine Tondelier, secretary of the Greens, substitute candidate in the constituency dominated by Marine Le Pen, has evoked a new Republican Front. It will not be easy, among a Macronian Ensemble that dislikes LFi and is reciprocated by it. Nor is it impossible, however. In the street demonstration that was immediately summoned in the evening in Place de la République by the Nfr, the theme was evoked; and if the demonstrators were linked by a common objective - 'We are all anti-fascists' was the slogan, strictly in Italian, most frequently used - the first divisions were not lacking: Faure was challenged, but even Mélenchon - who, along with Manuel Bompard, elected in the first round, dominated the evening - was harshly criticised for his authoritarian management of the party: 'Socialtraditor', he was called. "It's them or us, there is nothing in between," said Mélenchon.

Street demonstrations were also held in Nantes, where the crowd was dispersed by the police, and in Lyon, where barricades were erected and an attack on the city hall was attempted. The police are on high alert in all cities and in the capital itself the use of drones for surveillance has been authorised on an extraordinary basis.

Among the well-known right-wing candidates, Eric Ciotti , the president of the Républicains protagonist of a bitter split caused by his sudden decision to ally himself with Rn, came first in the Alpes Maritimes, with 41%, but two other candidates, one from Nfp and one from Ensemble, were admitted to the second round. Same fate for Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine's sister, in the Sarthe.

Gérald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior, also came first (with 36%) in the North in a constituency with three people admitted to the ballot (Rn and Nfp). Stéphane Séjourné, in Hauts-de-Seine, also came first with 46.1%; he will meet an Nfp candidate in the runoff. Elisabeth Borne, former prime minister, came second in Calvados, with 28.9%, behind an Rn candidate and ahead of an Nfp candidate, all of whom will be admitted to the ballot. The Socialist Faure has already speculated on the possibility of 'saving her'.

On the left, Fabien Roussel, secretary of the Communist Party, was not elected, in the North, despite having collected 31% of the votes: in the constituency the Rn candidate, Guillaume Fourquin passed in the first round with 50.30% of the votes. François Ruffin, Mélenchon's great opponent in Lfi, came second in the Somme with 33.9% behind an Rn candidate and ahead of an Ensemble candidate, who was third in the runoff.

In the 18 Paris constituencies, nine candidates were elected in the first round, all from the Nouveau Front Populaire: Pouria Amirshahi (socialist), Sophia Chikirou (Insoumise), Emmanuel Gregoire (socialist, deputy mayor of the capital), Eva Sas (ecologist), Sandrine Rousseau (ecologist), Rodrigo Arenas (Insoumis), Sarah Legrain (Insoumise), Daniéle Obono (Insoumise) and Aymeric Caron (ecologist). In seven others Nfp is on the ballot.
Interesting is the evolution of the vote in the capital, where Rn has never managed to break through. In 2022, nine Macronian candidates and 11 from Nupes, the left-wing cartel, had been elected (including two in the first round). In 2017, the Macronians had won 13 deputies (one in the first round, one from MoDem), while the Républicains had won three seats and the leftists, who had stood divided, only two (one socialist and one insoumi).