Fresh paintings by new talents on the brakes

One can only hope and wait for the wet paint to dry on many canvases that have seen a surge in values since the pandemic in 2021. The phenomenon of wet paint, i.e. works with no more than three years of life sold at auction at incomprehensible values, has exalted many young talents, even dragging in artists who are no longer very young. But today, these artists are being presented with the bill for a growth in the values of their fresh works that is too hasty compared to the evolution of their career in the art system. A few numbers help to understand how speculation in recent years has ridden the phenomenon: in 2021 at Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips auctions, the adjudications of "fresh paint" works reached a record value of $215.2 million, a significant increase (+135.9%) compared to the previous peak of $91.2 million in 2015. Today, these speculative purchases are on the brakes: only $29.7m was traded for wet paint in the first half of the year, compared to $50.6m in the first half of 2023.

For many artists, the gap created between economic value in the wake of a record reached at auction and cultural recognition has an impact on their young career, which risks stalling. To sustain the new price levels, the market would expect to see an increase in activity related to the artist's career, i.e. more exhibitions, more museum support, more private collectors, in order to bridge the gap between market value and cultural value. If expectations are not fulfilled, there is a risk that the artist's market may come to a standstill and a value adjustment may occur or, worse, that long-term confidence in the artist's market may be undermined.

Building a sustainable path for an artist implies well-considered steps to produce works of new 'cultural value': starting with the academy and the masters one has followed, then making oneself known with group exhibitions in independent spaces to arrive at meetings with curators and galleries that can represent the artist in order to promote solo shows and publications and involve collectors. Reviews and articles in the media and in art criticism magazines are an important accreditation that help to make the work known and widen the circuit of contacts up to the first group exhibitions in museums. At this point, the debut at auction is a consistent step, as is the entry into a top international gallery. The work circulates, passages at auctions and the presence in private collections increase. Nominations in prestigious prizes and exhibitions in important biennials are prerequisites for entry into museum collections and the collections of important private collectors. The trajectory is consistent: the market value of the work grows, without speculation, hand in hand with cultural recognition. Shortcuts, art flipping, have proven in recent years to burn out the stages of an artist's career. It has happened to Aboudia, Amoako Boafo, Jadé Fadojutimi, Flora Yukhnovich, Anna Weyant and Hilary Pecis, whose volumes of wet paint works at auction have grown exponentially.