Insurance

From EU bigwigs over 130 billion coupons in ten years

Unipol tops Tsr, Generali the stock market rally, Allianz tops dividends and Zurich the highest growth in operating profit

 (Imagoeconomica)

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The highest total return shareholder? Unipol. The most extreme stock market rally? Generali. The dividend queen? Allianz. The highest growth in operating profit? Zurich. This is the broad balance sheet of the last decade of Europe's leading insurance groups, which, despite a pandemic, the inflationary crisis, two wars and natural catastrophes on the rise, except for the parenthesis of 2025, have demonstrated a resilience that can be summed up in a single number: more than 130 billion in dividends paid out in 10 years. Two lustres with few blemishes and several medals to pin on their chests, each their own. One, however, for all, namely having achieved a total shareholder return in excess of 176% of the Stoxx 600 Insurance.

Primates

So there were those who excelled on the stock exchange, Generali, which marked a 140% increase in capitalisation. Who grabbed the dividend podium, Allianz with more than L45 billion distributed and a 125% leap in coupon per share. And who secured the gold medal on the business strength front, Zurich with a 96% increase in operating profit. In the middle, Axa, with ten challenging years in which it also took up the overseas challenge and focused significantly on the non-life segment, while still managing to keep the rudder straight in the wake of a total shareholder return of 176%.

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The Unipol case

In this scenario, then, there is a reality that makes history in itself. The scale is smaller, the dimension is not global, the focus is on just one country, Italia, but this is enough to put on paper a story that on the results front is surprising. Anyone who bought a Unipol share in 2016 and then kept it in their portfolio by reinvesting the dividends would today find themselves with a total shareholder return of 596%, against an increase in statutory profit from EUR 160 million to EUR 1.64 billion, a coupon that rose from EUR 0.18 to EUR 1.12, and a capitalisation of over EUR 14 billion from the initial EUR 2.4 billion. A result that reflects a profound strategic discontinuity. It is no coincidence that the acceleration of vertical growth took place just after the two-year period 2024-2025, the one in which the impact of the management led by Carlo Cimbri was structural, thanks to the simplification of the company through the merger with UnipolSai and expansion in the banking sector (Bper, Sondrio). The proposed 2026 coupon of EUR 1.12 guarantees a dividend yield of 9.12%, one of the highest in the sector.

The big boys' race

It is also superior to Allianz, which from the top in terms of coupons still has a dividend yeld of 5.6% and in ten years has guaranteed its shareholders a Tsr of 255%. Oliver Bäte's management, which has taken total operating profit from EUR 11 billion to EUR 17.4 billion (+57%), has focused on organic growth and strict diversification between insurance and asset management activities. The historical series shows a steady progression, with superior resilience during economic downturns. Unlike more volatile competitors, Allianz has built its value on operational stability, reducing exposure to reputational or systemic shocks.

Management at Generali also continued. Philippe Donnet arrived in 2016 and will celebrate a decade at the helm with the 2026 AGM. A decade during which the operating result has risen from EUR 4.7 billion to EUR 8 billion and the coupon has increased by 105%. A dividend machine capable, therefore, of disentangling itself from internal board tensions and those with strong shareholders (the Caltagirone group and Delfin in the lead) . All this resulted in a Tsr of 261%. If, on the one hand, Donnet ensured the sustainability of the coupon increase, on the other, shareholder activism favoured an acceleration of the price.

A price that even Mario Greco, Zurich's CEO, was able to push up but in the wake of other dynamics. Capitalisation jumped by more than 100% to over CHF 85 billion, dividends soared by almost 77% and this secured a Tsr of 286%. Greco's strategy focused on underwriting discipline and improving underwriting margins, which generated record profits thanks to extremely strict cost management. In the last period, he then gave a boost to the development strategy for external lines, such as the offer on the English Beazley, which goes in the direction of creating a European champion of specialty lines. This was also positively affected by the strength of the Swiss franc, which is often a safe haven asset. All in all, the European insurance sector has something to cheer about compared to its performance over the past 10 years. All the more so because this exponential growth occurred, as mentioned, in a particularly challenging period that has accustomed managers to drawing long-term strategic lines despite a highly changeable short-term time horizon, often due to ungovernable exogenous dynamics.

Which, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's recent Global Insurance Survey, still forces the industry to keep its focus. At least on two aspects: US dynamics and inflation. In the survey, in fact, 55% of insurers expect a recession in the US in the next three years. This figure is up 46% but is a lesser risk in Europe where 66% of surveyed managers (434 in all) are most concerned about geopolitical risks, the highest figure among the three global regions. So much so that in the Old Continent, the economic slowdown in the United States is reported by 27%, compared to 50% in the Americas and 67% in Asia. On inflation as a worrying variable, on the other hand, everyone seems to be more in agreement: from 46% in the Emea area, in line with the Americas (47%) to 34% in Asia. The price increase of the previous crisis has just been disposed of, a new wave so close would be difficult to digest.

Nevertheless, 88% expect the S&P 500 to rise in 2026 and 73% expect returns between 5% and 20%. Against this backdrop, however il 62% of insurers will increase their exposure to private assets, and private credit is now considered a core component of portfolios regardless of the moonshine that is hitting the sector hard, especially in the US. Speaking of investments, EMEA insurers plan to increase their allocation over the next 12 months mainly in Infrastructure Equity (+34%).

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