Markets

From healthcare to AI, stock markets await the outcome of the US elections

The impact on different sectors depending on whether the election results in a Democratic or Republican victory

by Livia Caivano

3 November 2026

Aggiungi Il Sole 24 Ore
ai preferiti su Google

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The markets are bracing for the US elections. Whatever the outcome of these elections, the fiscal, political and regulatory implications will shape market trends over the coming months.

The focus

Healthcare is the first sector to monitor. “A Democratic victory could refocus attention on the issue of access to healthcare and provide an indication of the direction of reforms in the long term,” explain Thomas Mucha, geopolitical strategist, and Juhi Dhawan, macro strategist, at Wellington Management.

Consumer-related sectors could also be affected by a greater focus on affordability and consumer protection, “although persistent inflation remains a challenge regardless of who controls Congress”, the two analysts point out.

The topic of defence

Defence and infrastructure could also return to the forefront. Wellington Management explains: “The prospect of a change in control of Congress could prompt the Republicans to fast-track certain priorities in the end-of-year session, including increased defence funding and changes to infrastructure spending.” Together with funding for the agricultural sector, these measures could amount to as much as 0.5 per cent of GDP.

The tech match

Finally, technology, and in particular artificial intelligence: a Democratic victory could lead to greater scrutiny of data centres and the development of AI. Conversely, national security considerations could favour a more lenient regulatory approach, ‘not least to prevent stricter rules from slowing down US innovation compared with China’, conclude Mucha and Dhawan.

When putting together a portfolio, it is important not to confuse the end of the election campaign with the end of volatility. “It is better to build a portfolio capable of weathering different scenarios, without relying on a rapid fall in inflation and interest rates,” continues Andrea Randone, Head of Mid-Small Cap Research at Intermonte. In the infrastructure and data centre sector, Intermonte has upgraded its rating on Prysmian and maintains a positive outlook on Carel and LU-VE. It is also looking to the luxury sector, where it favours “a targeted selection rather than indiscriminate exposure to the sector”. Brunello Cucinelli and Ferrari are the stocks to watch, according to Randone, who is also keeping a close eye on the gaming sector. Here, the stock on which Intermonte is focusing is Lottomatica. “We appreciate the group’s ability to generate strong cash flow and the opportunities to realise synergies from the recent acquisition of Cirsa.”

Gold

And what about gold? Simone Manenti, managing director of Confinvest Oro, points out that on the first trading day following the vote in each of the last five mid-term elections, gold has always lost value on the market. “In the following month, however, it has regained ground, rising by an average of 2.4 per cent compared with pre-vote levels,” explains Manenti. As for these mid-term elections, gold is heading into polling day on a weak note. “The most likely scenario – a divided Congress – may bring volatility around election time, but in the short term the metal remains tied to the Fed, with prospects of rising interest rates, and to oil. In the medium term, a political deadlock in the US, with high deficits, a weaker dollar and greater institutional uncertainty, would be a favourable environment for gold, especially following October’s sharp correction’, conclude Confinvest Oro.