US election, polls: Harris has 4-point lead over Trump, over margin error

Iowa is a Midwestern state but not among those that should be contested. In its cornfields Trump won decisively in both 2016 and 2020, by 9 and 8 percentage points . And it has long been considered firmly in Republican hands. Not this time. In the latest sign of a pulse-pounding election, a poll two days away from the presidential vote conducted by the local Des Moines Register and Selzer newspaper, a poll considered of quality and with a history of reliable outcomes, yielded a shock result: Kamala Harris had jumped ahead, by three points, 47% to 43% among likely voters.

If the polls are to be treated with caution - and others still reward Trump in Iowa (at this hour the Emerson poll gave Trump 9 points over Harris) - the response represents a potential earthquake, which in the final hours of the campaign may upset the calculations of the two campaigns and of anyone who wants to bet on the polls. Although only six big voters are up for grabs in the state, a success in Iowa, if it comes true, may be a harbinger of more: it could mean that even crucial Michigan and Wisconsin in the Midwest end up to the Democratic candidate. The election to the White House, in this scenario, would become a done deal for her, commented polling guru Nate Silver.

Even if Harris ultimately does not win Iowa, the very fact that he turned it into an uncertain state could bode well for the Democrats. It could reflect a more general boost and final optimism for Harris in the closing hours of the election battle.

This is the first time Harris is ahead in Iowa, but Trump's previous lead had steadily narrowed in the same poll. He boasted 18 points over Joe Biden in June, before he retired, but only 4 points in September over Harris. And it should be remembered that turnarounds in Iowa are not impossible: Democrat Barack Obama won Iowa by 6 points in 2012.

"Hard to say anyone could have predicted this," said J. Ann Selzer, head of the polling company. But Harris "clearly moved into first position," she added.

Some elements of the poll are particularly significant and may be revealing of trends elsewhere: it is mainly women and independents who have caused the upheaval. Harris and the Democrats have made abortion rights and women's rights one of the crucial campaign themes, set against the drastic restrictions sought by the Republicans and the often macho and vulgar rhetoric adopted by Trump. Large national demonstrations yesterday saw thousands of women marching in Washington and other cities in defence of abortion and women's rights. Harris has also actively courted in all contested states independent and unsure voters and moderate Republicans, painting Trump as unstable, extremist and a threat to democracy.

The tycoon has improved his position in Pennsylvania to 48%. This was revealed in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. Harris is now slightly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona. In Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, the race is tightening. The results in all seven states are within the margin of error, meaning that neither candidate has a definitive lead.