From Vannacci to Di Battista to Calenda: who could cause the centre-right and centre-left to lose the elections

“Alessandro Di Battista? I hold him in high regard and he’s doing a lot in terms of communication. He has my respect. If he wants to form a party, you’ll have to ask him, but he’ll never be an enemy of mine.”

Much as Giorgia Meloni has done in recent weeks with Roberto Vannacci on the right, Giuseppe Conte on the left is also putting on a brave face regarding the former enfant prodige of the original M5S, who left the parent party in 2021 in protest against the formation of the Draghi government. But the truth is that both Vannacci’s party and the prospect – for now – of a party led by Di Battista are a real thorn in the side not only for the parties they came from – namely the Lega and the M5S – but for the two coalitions as a whole.

So much so that the ‘Vannacci storm’ has already reignited the debate on the effectiveness of the electoral reform devised by the centre-right at the start of the year within the new political landscape: are we really so sure – this is the question that is beginning to circulate insistently – that the 42 per cent threshold required to trigger the majority bonus will be reached? The latest Youtrend poll paints a picture of a neck-and-neck race: the centre-left, excluding Calendian-led Azione, stands at 44.5 per cent, whilst the centre-right, excluding Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale, stands at 43.1 per cent. It is clear that any further rise in support for Vannacci could see the centre-right, led by Meloni, fall short of the threshold; it is no coincidence that she has already begun hammering home the message of tactical voting (“if you vote for Vannacci, the left will win”).

But even on the other side of the political spectrum – and setting aside Di Battista’s potential populist party, which early estimates suggest could attract around 5 per cent of the vote – the leaders of the PD and the M5S, Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte, cannot rest easy: the political equation, especially on the left, is never a simple arithmetic sum. An alliance such as the one currently taking shape between the PD, M5S, AVS and the centrist parties Italia Viva and Più Europa has never stood in a general election, and it is likely that voters’ behaviour will also be influenced by who ultimately becomes the prime ministerial candidate: some Five Star Movement voters might not vote if Schlein is at the helm, opting instead to abstain or cast a protest vote, whilst some PD voters might opt for other alternatives, such as Calenda’s third pole, if Conte is at the helm.

In short, the risk that no party will reach the 42 per cent threshold in the 2027 elections – as Lorenzo Pregliasco of YouTrend admits – is a realistic one, with the consequent failure to secure a majority and a return to a proportional representation system.