FT: Gulf crisis, US oil groups vying for 63 billion extra profit

The crisis in the Gulf and the de-facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are creating a paradox for the US energy industry: as the global oil market enters a phase of extreme instability, US oil companies could collect an extra revenue of up to USD 63 billion thanks to the jump in crude prices. The estimate, reported by the Financial Times, is based on assessments by Jefferies (a global full-service investment banking and capital markets firm) and Rystad Energy (an independent energy research and business intelligence firm based in Oslo).

The mechanism is simple: the less oil manages to get out of the Gulf, the more international prices rise. The FT reports that WTI has approached $100 a barrel, after a very strong rise since the start of the war on 28 February 2026, and that US shale groups are among the main beneficiaries because they have limited exposure to Middle Eastern assets and thus suffer less operational disruption than the global majors.

The advantage, however, is not the same for everyone. Large international companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are more exposed to the side effects of the crisis: closed plants, blocked shipping, slowed exports and compromised production in the Gulf area. In other words, rising prices may inflate revenues, but for those operating directly in the region, the final bill risks being eroded by industrial and logistical losses.

The heart of the problem remains Hormuz, a strategic passage for a huge share of the world's oil. The FT reports that around 20 million barrels per day normally flow through there, while Goldman Sachs estimates that around 18 million barrels per day are currently being hindered, as well as a significant portion of global LNG flows. It is this supply shock that explains why the market is rewarding the less geographically vulnerable producers, particularly those in North America.