Ft: soaring energy costs will have the biggest impact on Italia

"Soaring energy costs will have the biggest impact on Italia, where inflation in the fourth quarter of this year could rise by more than 1 percentage point compared to the consultancy's previous forecasts". This is highlighted by the Financial Times on the basis of an analysis conducted by Oxford Economics. "The Eurozone as a whole and the UK will experience an increase of more than half a percentage point in expected inflation. In contrast, US inflation in the fourth quarter will rise by only 0.2 percentage points, with Canada being the least affected, according to the analysis."

"Donald Trump's attack on Iran will deal a harder blow to European and Asian economies than to the US itself, which will be partly cushioned from the effects thanks to its large domestic energy sector, analysts say. 'The US has been a net exporter of natural gas since 2017 and oil since 2020, according to official data, which means its energy sector benefits from rising prices, even though the average American household will be hit hard by higher gasoline prices,' writes the Ft.

"In contrast, European and Asian economies that are dependent on energy imports face a much more pronounced inflation spike, in part because natural gas prices in those markets are more volatile than in the US and have already risen, and fuel is critical in their domestic energy markets," the paper points out.

"Last week, Brent crude oil jumped nearly 30 per cent following the outbreak of war, while European gas prices ended the week about two-thirds higher. Gains were driven by fears of a prolonged disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for energy traffic, as well as production losses elsewhere in the Middle East."