The study

Brain drain: the cost to Italia amounts to 11.4 billion lost each year

The figure, cited in the study carried out by the Teha Group in collaboration with Philip Morris Italia, takes into account the skills of those leaving the country and the potential added value that is not generated

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

One in three graduates who leave Italia takes with them a skill that the state has paid to develop and which another country will benefit from for free. This is one of the key findings of the study “Understanding and tackling the phenomenon of brain drain: the Roadmap for Italia”, carried out by Teha Group in collaboration with Philip Morris Italia and presented in Cernobbio as part of the forum “The Current and Future Landscape for Competitive Strategies”.

The brain drain and the cost to the country

In 2024, over 141,000 Italian citizens moved their residence abroad: of these, around 45,000 held at least one degree. Over the last ten years, the country has lost over 300,000 qualified citizens. Preliminary figures for 2025, however, indicate a decline in these flows – down 22.7 per cent compared with 2024 – linked to changes in registration with the AIRE register. The cost to the state remains substantial, however: €7.2 billion a year in public expenditure on the education of graduates who leave, a figure that rises to €10.7–11.4 billion if the potential added value that is not generated is included.

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“This phenomenon affects Italia’s ability to transform skills, knowledge and innovation into greater productivity and economic growth, resulting in an estimated annual cost to the State of 7.2 billion euros for the development of human capital that no longer contributes to the national economy,” commented Valerio De Molli, Managing Partner & CEO of The European House – Ambrosetti and Teha Group.

The phenomenon from a business perspective

The survey conducted by Teha amongst senior executives within its business community provides a snapshot of companies’ perceptions: 93.9 per cent consider the issue to be problematic or very problematic, and around one in two companies report that it has a significant impact on their business.

Among the reasons cited, low pay relative to the cost of living was cited by 82.1 per cent of respondents, followed by a lack of confidence in the country’s future (46.4 per cent) and a lack of job opportunities (35.7 per cent). However, 75 per cent of businesses state that they have already put in place a strategy for attracting and retaining staff, focusing on continuous training, flexible working and structured career paths.

A five-point roadmap

To complement the measures already in place, such as the special scheme for repatriated workers and that for lecturers and researchers, the study proposes a national roadmap based on five key areas: incentives for businesses that invest in salaries and stable employment; an ‘Italy Talent Visa’ to simplify the entry of international talent; strengthening the links between universities, research and businesses; measures to support mobility and families to encourage them to settle in regional areas; and a dedicated deep-tech fund to make the start-up ecosystem more competitive.

The simulations highlight what is at stake: without structural measures, the 2035 scenario forecasts a cumulative loss of around 760,000 graduates, a shortfall of over 120 billion euros in educational investment, and up to 307 billion in lost potential GDP. With the Roadmap fully implemented, however, the study estimates a potential recovery of around 119,000 graduates by 2035 and a positive impact of up to €11.1 billion in additional annual GDP in the most ambitious scenario.

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