G7, what Meloni got and how she will play the game to get Italy's weight in EU nominations

The curtain falls on the G7 and rises on Brussels. Giorgia Meloni closes her "historic day" on board the golf car of Pope Francis and says goodbye to Borgo Egnazia to attend the peace conference for Ukraine in Switzerland. The premier said she was proud of the work she had done, for "having astonished the world" and "charted the course" . In the final declaration, explicit reference is made to the Mattei plan and the need for cooperation with Africa to increase investments and control migration flows.

Obviously, the PM makes no mention of the game that will open as early as Monday 17, when the informal dinner of the 27 European leaders will be held in Brussels ahead of the council meeting at the end of the month. On that date, in fact, the indication of the future president of the commission is expected. Or rather, according to the boatos bouncing back to Rome from the capital of Europe, it should continue to speak in female terms. In pole position remains the encore candidacy of Ursula von der Leyen. The spitzkandidaten of the EPP was present in Borgo Egnazia together with the outgoing President of the European Council Charles Michel as permanent guests of the G7. Usually during summits, the Brussels summit and the three European leaders among the big ones - Italy France and Germany - hold a briefing with each other. This time there was no meeting at Borgo Egnazia. It could not have been otherwise, as everyone prefers to keep their cards covered at the moment.

This also applies to Meloni. It is not known whether the premier has been entertaining von der Leyen. The relationship between the two until recently was very good. Perhaps it still is. However, if that is the case they both avoid manifesting it. Especially on public occasions. This was also seen on the arrival of the commission chairwoman at Borgo Egnazia. Compared to the past, the greeting between the two was much more formal and they avoided speaking to each other even at the flag ceremony held on the lawn of the golf club in front of the resort for the G7 family photo. And it certainly did not help the frost between Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron triggered by the clash over the recognition of the right to abortion. Both, however, have an interest in closing the game as soon as possible.

Meloni - she has said so explicitly - seeks a leading role for Italy, which means having a post that counts as a vice-president with heavy delegations (competition for example). This does not automatically translate into being part of a possible majority. After all, it has already happened. Von der Leyen in 2019 was elected with the votes of the so-called Ursula majority, i.e. the EPP, the Socialists and the Renew Liberals, to which, however, the Poles of the Pis, the right-wing party of former premier Morawieckj, now ousted by the popular Donald Tusk, and also the Five-Star Movement of Giuseppe Conte (or rather then still of Beppe Grillo) were occasionally added during the vote to elect the president. A momentary agreement that guaranteed Ursula the chairmanship of the committee. Despite the fact that the three groups that openly supported her had a large majority, there were many franchi tiratori and without the votes of the Pis and M5s she would not have made it. Scenario repeated again this time. On the contrary, the numbers available to von der Leyen compared to 2019 are even smaller. currently the Ursula majority has 402 seats. To be elected, 361 are needed. Without outside help to neutralise the franchi tiratori, the risk of a flop is highly probable. And this is where Meloni could raise 'the price'.

Unless those who claim that the Italian prime minister could wait for the French elections and the probable victory of Marine Le Pen to attempt a reversal and bring about that union of the right-wing to which her ally Matteo Salvini and especially the leader of Rassemblement national aspire. That the Carroccio deputy premier wishes this is understandable given that he risks remaining a mere spectator this time as well. And just as understandable is that Le Pen wants it in order to help her remove the cordon sanitaire that has been tightened around her also because of her pro-Putin stance, from which she has only recently distanced herself. Meloni, however, would not have much to gain. She currently holds a relative majority in her group - ECR - a cohabitation with Le Pen would take the sceptre away from her as the French leader has obtained more seats than Fratelli d'Italia. The timing of the verification, however, is imminent and everything will be played out in about ten days. Meloni will attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland and then turn to Brussels. Only then will she start to lay her cards down.