Letter to the saver

Garofalo Health Care, the challenge is on private service revenues

Healthcare. The group is focused on the integration of the newly acquired Aurelia 80. The risks of inflation and high interest rates

by Vittorio Carlini

6' min read

6' min read

On the one hand, the objective is to increase revenues from private services, reaching - in the medium term - at least 30% of total turnover. On the other the integration of the newly acquired Aurelia 80. All this while continuing the M&A business, when the right opportunity arises. They are among the priorities of Garofalo Health Care(GHC) to support the business.

Yes, the business. The company, which Lettera al Risparatore heard from the top management, is an accredited private healthcare company in Italy whose activities are divided into the following areas: the territorial and socio-assistance sector and the hospital sector (acute, post-acute and outpatient services).

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NOVE MESI A CONFRONTO

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The private

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Well, one priority is to increase turnover from private services. At the end of 2023 this type of revenue is around 21% of the total turnover. In the medium term, the goal is to reach a share of at least 30%. This is an accelerating business - in the first nine months of 2023 this grew by 11.3% compared to the same period in 2022 - which has several reasons. Among others: on the one hand, like it or not, the contraction of public healthcare spending that creates difficulties for the NHS in providing services (think, for example, of the long waiting lists); on the other hand, the increasing growth of phenomena such as corporate welfare or health insurance coverage. In such a context, the demand for private services is - evidently - destined to expand.

L’integrazione

But it is not only a question of revenue type. Another priority is the integration of Aurelia 80. The operation, whose closing took place last November, involves the shopping of four assets: Aurelia hospital, European Hospital, the St. Anthony of Padua Hospice and the Samadi psychiatric residence. The aggregation of the assets represents an important step. This includes the creation of a cardiovascular heart centre at Aurelia Hospital. Here, the construction of a new surgical plate is planned. As of today, the internal building reorganisation of Aurelia Hospital is starting, for which only the Scia is required. It is a move that will also allow the renovation of other departments of the hospital. Then there is the construction of the actual plate. On this front, next February, the presentation of the final project is expected, with respect to which, 3-6 months later, the approval of the Municipality of Rome should arrive - barring unforeseen circumstances. From there, GHC's idea is that, between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the new cardio-surgical plate should come into operation.

The execution risk

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All smooth as a trickle, then? The reality is more complicated. The saver points out that aggregation implies, for example, execution risk. A possible problem that may impact, among other things, Garofalo health care's margins. The group rejects the concern.First and foremost, it is pointed out, the company in the past has effectively integrated different realities. So - as the track record itself shows - it has the expertise to handle the Aurelia 80 operation. Moreover, says the group, at the time of the presentation of the extraordinary activity on Aurelia 80, GHC itself had estimated an Ebitda of the reality acquired of about 5.5 million for the whole of 2023. The forecast, also and above all in the wake of the first operations carried out by Garofalo health care, has been revised upwards: the EBITDA, the company always indicates, should be at least 30% higher than the first estimate. Consequently, precisely with regard to the Aurelia 80 shopping spree, on the one hand, no specific problems are seen; and, on the other, the forecast is that the operation will be profitability-enhancing.

Potential Target Identifier

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That said, given the importance of the transaction, does GHC plan to take a break from M&A's strategy? The answer is negative. The group, although aware of the complexity of aggregation, indicates how - should the right opportunity present itself - it is ready to seize it. With respect to areas of activity (acute, post-acute, outpatient and social care) there is no greater focus on one area than the other. Although the company, on the one hand, looks closely at the sector of inpatient hospital centres (turnover in excess of 10 million) and diagnostic centres (revenues essentially in excess of 5 million); and, on the other, it maintains its focus on virtuous regions. Those regions which, moreover - it should be remembered - in the wake of the Covid expenses are, in some cases, facing budget imbalances.

STORIA DEI RICAVI E DELLA REDDITIVITÀ

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Capitalised Investments

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Up to this point, some considerations on private performance income and M&A strategy. Savers, however, also look at investments. In 2023, the group's Capex should settle at around 18 million. Of this, around 12.7 million are in the so-called manteinance. In other words, capitalised disbursements directed towards a multiplicity of topics: from the regulatory adaptation of structures to It up to energy efficiency and technological evolution of the business (e.g. digitisation of the same). The other EUR 5.5 million, on the other hand, is attributable to the group's organic expansion. This includes, among others, the opening of the new wing of the Istituto Raffaele Garofalo in Gravellona Toce or the expansion of the headquarters of the Veneto Diagnostica Riabilitazione Group in Padua. All operations which, evidently in an organic manner, make it possible to expand the group's business.

DEBITO NETTO

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Inflazione

However, the saver also looks at another issue: inflation True, the latter, although still volatile, has shown strong signs of cooling. That said, the risk, particularly for a business like GHC's where labour costs are important, is that there may be an impact on profitability. GHC does not share this concern. First, with respect to labour costs, the company points out that the main issue is that of paramedical staff. Well: the renewal of the contract, it is pointed out, has already been achieved. Not only that. With reference to energy costs, GHC emphasises, on the one hand, that the average incidence on revenues, in the first nine months of 2023, was 2% (it was 3.2% in 2022); and, on the other hand, that net of the tax credit recognised on the rise in energy and gas prices, the incidence itself would be 1.7%. That is, in line with the pre-'energy shock' figures of 2022. Finally, GHC recalls that a PPA contract is enforceable to better manage the high energy prices. Having said that, however, a further objection can be made. Precisely in order to cope with the inflation caused by high energy prices, central banks have started to tighten monetary policy. An increase in interest rates, which, in the face of GHC's debt (175 million gross debt as at 30/9/2023) largely at variable rates, can push up financial expenses and thus affect profit. The group, again, does not agree with this objection. First because, says GHC, the rate dynamic has peaked and, predictably, the future outlook is for rates to fall. Then because, given the company's ability to generate cash, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA is expected to be just over two times at the end of 2023. That is: a low value. Against this, the company concludes, despite the fact that debt is expected to rise as of 31/12/2023, the group does not see a particular problem with respect to its financial structure.

Against this backdrop, what then is the stock's stock market and income statement trend? With regard to the second topic GHC indicates, for the full year 2023, to be in line with the consensus. That is: revenues around 358 million, Ebitda around 67 million and Ebitda margin slightly above 19%. Compared to the stock market, the share price has risen by 27.83% over the past year (closing on 25/1/2024), according to Bloomberg. Over the longer term, the result is negative (-7.25% over 3 years). Compared to the P/e the estimated P/e on 2023 is 17.5. That is: at the lower end of the range of the last financial years, which is between 15.5 (2022) and 37.8 (2020).

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